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TSP Talk: Quiet day heading into big earnings

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It was a very quiet day on Tuesday with a lull in volatility and the major indices nearly flat lining. The small caps and the Transportation Index were the losers with each falling over 1% on the day. Bonds were flat and the dollar was down again.

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It was a narrow day of trading in the majors, and internally we saw some divergences with more issues down than up on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, but share volume in both cases were in favor of the advancers over the decliners. With stocks still near the all-time highs, of course we will see a lot more new highs than new lows for a while.




On the negative side we are seeing many indicators almost suggesting poor action, yet the indices remain near their highs. In a normal environment this would be a good indication of a prelude to a pullback. But with 0% interest rates and the Fed's Money Supply at insane levels, perhaps investors will continue to throw money at the market and any pullback will be muted. I've talked about a day of reckoning coming, but you never know how long a bubble can stay inflated before it bursts, and it's usually longer than we can anticipate.

Gamestop's stock is one worth watching just for entertainment purposes. If you recall from yesterday's commentary, Gamestop had gone from under $20 to start the year, and ran up to $160 on Monday before settling near $77 that day. Yesterday it was up 92%, not typo, and closed at $148. But that wasn't all. Last I checked it was up another $80 in after hours trading yesterday and was near $224 a share. Welcome back to the 2000 dot com bubble.

The two-day FOMC meeting wraps up today with a policy statement some time after 2PM.

Microsoft reported a strong quarter after the bell yesterday, boosting the stock about 5% in after hours trading. Today we'll get Apple, Tesla, Facebook, and Boeing, all of which could be market movers. Amazon and Google come out next week.



The S&P 500 (C-fund) slipped a bit after a morning rally, and remains in that long trading channel, still occupying the top near the overhead resistance.




The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) came back to test the lows from Monday and it is possibly showing some fatigue here. It should be anyway, but we have seen repeated 2 to 3 day pullbacks get bought in this rally.




The EFA (I-fund) was up slightly with the help of the dollar, which was down 0.29% yesterday. That 74.50 area looks like it needs to hold.




The Dow Transportation Index took another hard hit and it has been testing some rising support and the 50-day EMA. With support below there, it looks like it is getting close to make or break time here.




The Volatility Index was slightly lower on the quiet day, but remains above the rinsing support line.




BND (bonds / F-fund) was down slightly on the day as the bottom of that large open gap, right where the 50-day EMA is also sitting, has been holding for a couple of days.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes