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TSP Talk: Another mixed / flat day - late vaccine news

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More of the same yesterday with the indices being mixed and somewhat flat. The Dow gained 86-points and the small caps had a very good day, but the S&P ended the day with a small loss after a late sell off on some vaccine news, but the bears still don't seem to have the fortitude to fight the fight. Bonds rallied again after initial jobless claims came in lighter than expected.

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Some late news from Pfizer about their inability to meet 2020 expectations on the number of vaccines that will be available sent stocks off their afternoon highs late yesterday, but it wasn't enough to do serious damage. Then after the bell there was some concern about hackers and the vaccine, but I didn't quite get it, so when I saw the futures up again on Thursday evening, I figured it may not be something to worry about.

Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell started talking again about stimulus and we know the market wants to hear that, and may be the main focus right now.

The jobs report for November comes out this morning (Friday) and last I saw consensus estimates were looking for a gain of 650,000 jobs but the estimates are over the place, so the reaction could be interesting. The unemployment rate is looking to hold at 6.9%.
I'm out of town for the weekend already and trying to hang with some family so I'll take advantage of the slow, flat action to make this another quick one again. I don't really have to much to say about the action that's any different than what we've been saying. We could be seeing a slowdown in the upside, but any pullback at this point would actually be a healthy move.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) made another new intraday high yesterday but the late selling pushed it slightly into negative territory by the close. Nothing too alarming, but the top of that "F" flag continues to hold as resistance, although the resistance is still rising. I can't argue that the formation looks pretty good, but "F" flags do tend to eventually breakdown, however they could grind higher for some time within that flag until it breaks.

The DWCPF (S-fund) made anew high, and even though it closed off the highs, it did have a big day and ended the day with another closing high.

Bonds were up again on the stronger than expected initial jobless claims report yesterday, but today's jobs report should have a bigger impacts. It did close back above that descending trading channel so that pullback was just a successful test of the 50-day EMA.

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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

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