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TSP Talk: Rally pauses

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Stocks chopped around on Tuesday digesting the recent large gains over the last few days as the some of the charts deal with some overhead resistance. The Dow lost 131-points, well of the morning highs, and off the late morning lows. There is some mending that can be done to those charts to fill open gaps and test moving averages. All in all, it wasn't a good day, but not a terrible day either, and a little back and forth wouldn't be a bad thing as the indices try to build a base off the recent 10% - 18% correction - depending on the index.

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After the bell Disney came out and announced large layoffs, and of course that isn't a great vote of confidence for the economy, but we are still seeing improvements from some of the smaller companies as they climb back from the depths of the COVID despairs.

Meanwhile they are still negotiating in Washington over a stimulus bill. Being this close to an election, we have to question the sincerity of any proposal. The republicans would benefit from anything that would help the economy and the stock market but they don't want spending to get too out of hand and the democrats don't believe they are offering enough assistance. The democrats do want to help and are willing to spend, but at the price of trying to get some of their agenda projects thrown in the bill, and that seems to be the impasse right now.

The market wants something from them, and the pullback in September, while typical during an election year, was likely caused by the lack of a deal after investors were already pricing in a second stimulus package over the summer.

We had the presidential debate last night, or I assume we did, because I am writing his before the debate on Tuesday night. We'll see if anything is said or proposed that might move the market, but as far as changing voters' minds, I don't think so. The country is fairly divided, and in a survey we posted over the summer, only 10% of the respondents hadn't made up their minds yet. But I suppose in a close race that 10% could make the difference so maybe the market will react?

The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down on light volume yesterday and we saw the 50-day Simple Average hold as resistance for a second day, and the open gap below from Monday morning may have also been a lure. The immediate battle right now is between those two 50-day averages, and the two open gaps - one above the current level, and one below. Monday's rally broke one descending resistance line but the top of that blue flag-like formation may be another area of resistance.

The DWCPF (S-fund) is also at the top of a descending channel and above both the 50-day averages, but the large open gap below may need to be filled in the short-term before this goes any further.

The EFA (I-fund) has open gaps above and below after successfully holding at the 200-day EMA, and since breaking slightly above its 50-day EMA. The dollar has reversed down recently helping this deal with those averages.

The Dow Transportation Index was down 1.2% yesterday as the index deals with the plethora of resistance lines just overhead. The support just above 11,000 has been doing a good job of holding since the breakout above it in August.

BND (F-fund) was up on Tuesday and is back in the middle of its trading range between 88.20 and 88.60. It tried to break above that descending resistance line, but closed just below it again.

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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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