TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were up all day on Thursday but for whatever reason, there was some kind of buying program initiated just before the close to nearly double the earlier gains. The Dow ended the day up 106-points, and this action was actually a lot better than an average Santa Claus rally day. Small caps lagged the large caps, while the I-fund did well, and bonds were also up.

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As I have been droning on about, the market is due for a rest, but this time of year the bulls tend to be in charge. Not always, but obviously this year the bears are hibernating for now. You just never know when you'll wake them up. For now, this must be the "melt up" we've been hearing about.

You may be sick of this example, but it is recent enough to let us now that it can still happen.

This was the end of 2017 and into the start of 2018. It felt a lot like the current situation where it looks like stocks may never go down.



And of course, just a few days later, boom!




Getting too complacent is not usually a good recipe, but strong markets can lull you into a false sense of security, and investors can get blindsided if they're not paying attention.

So enjoy the rally if you're in stocks, but don't nod off too long.

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The S&P 500 (C-fund) will not be denied as new highs come nearly every day of late. It's riding higher just below one rising resistance line but there's another above it that it may try to challenge. It was another light day of trading and clearly the bears are home filling their bellies and uninterested in making a move at this time.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was up 0.18%, which is not quite at the levels of the large caps, but still a modest gain and new high.




The EFA (I-fund) was up and the dollar was down helping it to try to retest its recent highs.




The AGG (F-fund / bonds) broke above its bull flag yesterday. With the dollar down yesterday it helped stocks, gold, copper, an even bonds move higher, but this AGG maybe the most significant technical move yesterday with that bull flag breaking. Gold also recently broke out of a long bull flag, but that was a couple of days ago. It looks good too.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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