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Hong Kong bill could jeopardize bulls advantage today

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Stocks were up on Wednesday with the Dow gaining a modest 42-points, but we saw more robust gains from the broader indices like the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and small caps. The Transports however were down on the day, and the a rally in the dollar put a little pressure on the I-fund. Today could be a give-back day, as you'll see below, but the Friday after Thanksgiving has historically been another day for the bulls.

Daily TSP Funds Return

It was a typical holiday period day of trading on Wednesday, as the bulls were in charge and the traders stayed home. But after the close on Wednesday, President Trump signed a bill backing the Hong Kong protestors in spite of China's objections, and of course we know how that goes. The futures opened sharply lower in after hours trading on Wednesday evening...

... but as of Thursday evening those losses in the S&P futures have subsided some, although still in the red.

The market closes at 1 PM ET today, but that won't impact the TSP 12 noon ET deadline.

Just a quick look at the TSP Fund Indices today...

The S&P 500 (C-fund) chart shows Wednesday's gain, which is now in jeopardy if the overnight futures hold in negative territory after President Trump signed that Hong Kong bill. Seasonality is on the bulls' side today with a possibility of a post-holiday reversal on Monday, but the the trend is still up and the bears haven't shown any interest in getting in the way yet.

The DWCPF (S-fund) has been performing quite well over the last two months and broke out above the prior highs this week. It's hitting the top of the rising channel now and may be due for a rest (after the holiday?), and a possibly a retest of that breakout area near 1460.

The EFA (I-fund) has been moving sideways, mostly consolidating in November after the big gains in October. It poked its head into new high territory on Wednesday, closing at its highest level in months, but no official breakout yet. The third time can be the charm in these consolidations, but a "flat top" high is also possible.

The AGG (F-fund) pulled back to fill a small gap opened on Tuesday. The breakout above that flag-like formation looks real, but a test of the top of that flag is a possible response before resuming the upside.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to:

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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