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Another quiet day for stocks despite some hurdles

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Stocks were mixed once again with the Dow leading the way on the upside. Like Boeing the other day, Disney came out with some intraday data about signups to their streaming service and it helped the Dow outperform the broader indices, gaining 92-points. 70 of those came from Disney's gain. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each saw small moves, one up, one down. Bonds had a good day as the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell back below 1.9%.

Daily TSP Funds Return

The Transports continued their recent slide, losing over 1% on the day, while small caps posted a small loss and recovered from a much steeper loss in early trading.

The S&P 500 hasn't had back-to-back down days in over a month (Oct. 8) and it has now posted its 20th record close this year. To see stats like that on day where the Fed has basically said they are done cutting rates, the China trade negotiations hit a snag, and a public Presidential impeachment got under way, is pretty impressive, but "frothy" comes to mind. Yet, we're just heading into the strongest part of the year for stocks historically.

There was a midday blip when those trade negotiations were held up on a couple of issues, namely intellectual property protections and a specific amount of agricultural products the Chinese will be buying. But, the dip buyers jumped right back in and bought that brief swoon.

So it was an impressive day for stocks but another quiet one making it a little tough for market timers. Not much has changed so let's make this quick today.



The S&P 500 (C-fund) was up slightly and it continues to rise within the ascending trading channel. Each positive close here is a new record and that makes the headlines, which adds to the already extreme bullish sentiment.




The S-fund has been moving sideways for over a week now, and that could be a bullish flag-like consolidation, although as I have been pointing out, prior "flat tops" have preceded market declines in small caps.




The Dow Transportation Index was down over 1% yesterday and it appears to be making a beeline for that open gap it created to start the month.




The EFA (I-fund) was down on the day and bottomed on the top of that open gap from early November. That fill looks very doable, but the question is whether the large open gap from October is going to be an eventual target.




The Hong Kong market has been struggling for months as the protests in that country start to get more violent. This could have an impact on the I-fund for sure since it is one of the markets in the I-fund, but will it start impacting the global markets? It fell below the 50-day EMA, and that could be a large bear flag forming.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) had a good day but after breaking below the 50-day EMA several days ago, there could be some resistance trying to get back above it.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk - Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)