TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed on Monday, although mostly lower because only a big 4.6% gain in Boeing's stock, which was responsible for more than100 positive points in the Dow, kept it in the green.

The Index charts below on the right are from Monday's market action but the share prices on the left are from Friday since Monday was a Federal / TSP holiday and there were no TSP share prices posted. Tuesday's share prices will reflect the changes from the combination of Friday and Monday's market action.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

I was on the road on Thursday and TommyIV helped out with a quick wrap up of that day's action. Then on Friday I was playing golf in Sedona, where I spent the weekend and got home last night. So I have to admit I have some catching up to do here - and on the market action.

Because the bond market and many banks were closed yesterday, it was a light trading day as expected, and the indices were pushed around a bit. Boeing was the primary pusher yesterday when a midday spike in that stocks reversed some sharper early losses in the Dow and S&P 500. But by the close it was a fairly negative day with a lot more stocks down than up. here's the Advance / Decline data for the NYSE Exchange.




OK, let's hit some basics and I'll get my head back in the game.

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The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down 0.20% on the day but that was off the morning lows on a light volume trading day. It did dip back into the rising trading channel after breaking above it for a while.




The S-fund has also fallen below its rising trading channel recently but that also might be considered a bull flag forming. Either that or it is stalling at a peak like it did in July and September.




The 30-day vs. 10-yearTreasury yield curve has now steepened quite a bit since the inversion earlier this year. That inversion of course was a warning sign that the clock could be ticking on a looming recession in the coming year or two.




The 2-year vs. 10-year is also steepening since its inversion in August.




But just because they are no longer inverted and are steepening, does not nullify the fact that they did invert.

I posted this chart back in late May which shows the 2006 inversion of the 30-day / 10-year yield curve. By late 2007 and early 2008 it was no longer inverted and had already steepened quite a bit, yet the stock market rallied in 2006 and 2007, and didn't start tanking until well after the 30-day / 10-year yield had already steepened sharply - like it is now, and the recession also came during the steepening process.




I'm not sure if we'll get a recession but the 7 out of 7 perfect record of prior 30-day / 10-year yield inversions preceding a recession is not something to ignore. Maybe it's different this time, but it's still a good possibility.


The November seasonality chart starts a more bearish bias today after it rallied to start the month, as the seasonality chart had suggested.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



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