View RSS Feed

TSP Talk Blog

Give backs

Rate this Entry
Stocks pulled back on Thursday with a few indices giving back all of Wednesday's gains. The Dow was not up on Wednesday so it tacked on another 129-point loss, while the S&P did give back all of Wednesday's gains, and small caps were down but did held onto some of the prior day's big gains. The losses didn't break any recent rising trends, but the bulls' momentum was obviously slowed.

Daily TSP Funds Return

With four trading days left in the July the S&P 500 (C-fund) and S-fund are still up about 2% for the month, while the I-fund is now in negative territory because of the strength in the dollar this month, which made another 52-week high yesterday.

After hours we saw a pop in the Nasdaq futures after a strong earnings report from Google, Intel, and Starbucks, although Amazon disappointed on their EPS and was down modestly.

We get the Q2 GDP report this morning and analysts are looking for a gain of 1.8% for the economy. That's down from the first quarter, but it has been expected and is part of the reason that the Fed is likely going to cut rates next week. The question is, what does the Fed, and the stock market, do if this number comes in "hot?" Obviously it will give the Fed something to think about rather than an automatic rate cut, and investors will have to determine if that is a possibility since right now the Fed Futures are still showing a 100% chance of a cut next week, with a 21% chance of a 0.50% cut.



The S&P 500 (C-fund) gave back Wednesday's gains on Thursday but remained inside that rising trading channel (blue). The open gaps are still in the picture despite the S&P ignoring them for now. Even with the loss yesterday, there not a lot of negatives here, although that PMO indicator is still below its moving average, which is sort of strange given the new highs two days ago.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was down sharply Thursday but even a near 1% loss was not enough to take away Wednesday's big day of gains. The question now is, was that just a day of rest yesterday, or is this a failed breakout since it fell back below that old high?




The EFA (I-fund) was also down sharply and once again a big rally in the dollar had it lagging the S&P 500, as it has all month.




The dollar made a new high yesterday but open gaps don't tend to stay open on this chart for too long,so I would expect that gap near 26.35 to get filled relative soon, although there is one that has been open since July 1 all the way down near 26.00. The blue boxes are filled gaps.




The VIX held at 12.00 again, although it did close well off the high of 13.54 yesterday.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was off again as that 111.40 area has been tough to recapture since that gap down earlier this month.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!


Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "Give backs" to Digg Submit "Give backs" to del.icio.us Submit "Give backs" to StumbleUpon Submit "Give backs" to Google

Comments


S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes