TSP Talk Blog

The Sunday overnight futures were pointing to big negative open for stocks on Monday, and we got one with the Dow down 470 points at the opening bell. But that was the low tick of the day and the dip buyers had a field day for the next 5 hours or so. Things flattened out in the last hour of trading so we didn't see all of the losses recovered, but enough to create a big positive reversal day. The Dow ended the day down just 66-points, but the volatility didn't end there...

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

About an hour after the close yesterday there was more trade news released and this is what happened to the S&P 500 futures in after hours trading.



It says it's a loss of 37.75 points but that included Monday's losses so the futures lost another approximately 22-points after the bell.

What else can we say? Stocks have been due for a pullback but the bulls are clearly not going down without a fight, and as we see some minor technical deterioration in the charts, will the bears finally fight back, or is this just a blip on the way to new highs?

---

The S&P 500 (C-fund) broke below some rising support last week after the Fed meeting, then bounced back strongly after the jobs report. Monday it is met with another round of selling, triggered by the trade deal losing some steam. The 20-day EMA continues to hold but the first warning shot is that breakdown below the support line, which is also the bottom of a rising wedge pattern. Now that is the level to watch as possible resistance.




The DWCPF (S-fund) nearly battled back to close positive after losing all of Friday's big gains and running all the way down to test the bottom of its rising wedge pattern at the open. So, it's still in the wedge and the bulls won another battle.




The EFA (I-fund) opened weakly and it too finally broke below its rising support line / rising wedge pattern. It came all the way down to test, and hold, the 50-day EMA before battling back strongly. It did close with a 1% loss, but that was about half of its earlier losses.




We said we would keep an eye on China's Shanghai Index after it started pulling back over the last week or two, but yesterday it broke below its 50-day EMA and tested the 200-day EMA, which held. That's another possible red flag.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) posted another modest gain, as gains go for bonds, as it tries to climb back to where it was before the Fed caused the failed breakout last Wednesday.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.