TSP Talk Blog

Stocks trended higher most of the day on Monday before some late selling took the indices off their early afternoon highs. The final gains were muted and we saw a bit of a negative reversal, but it was more gains, none-the-less. The Dow closed up 11-points and small caps outperformed again, while the Transports continued to struggle. yes, the S&P 500 made a new high, but you can see there was some selling at those highs.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

It was a quiet day but after the bell Google (now Alphabet) shook things up a bit after it reported that it missed revenues in the first quarter by a billion dollars. The stock was down over 7% in after hours trading and you can see in this 15-minute Nasdaq 100 futures chart how traders reacted just after the bell yesterday.




That could set the tone for today, but when you look at most of the charts, a pause seems like a good idea as things were getting extended, hitting some resistance, and possibly due for a break.

The April jobs report comes out on Friday and estimates are looking for a gain of 200,000 jobs, an unemployment rate of 3.8%, and wage gains of 0.3%.

---

The S&P 500 (C-fund) hit the top of its rising wedge-like formation again, but it is rising so it's not exactly a brick wall. The negative reversal day may be telling us that it's time for a move down, maybe at least to the bottom of that parallel dashed red line near 2912. The next support levels would be near 2900, then 2850 where the 50-day EMA meets the bottom of that still open gap.




The DWCPF (S-fund) popped to a new recent high, although it is still below the 2018 highs. There was a negative reversal kangaroo tail created so a little weakness to start today is probable, especially after the reaction to Google's earnings.




The XLF Financials ETF is showing good strength recently as it tries to reach toward those 2018 highs, but 2800 may be an area of resistance in the meantime.




The Dow Transportation Index lagged yesterday losing another 0.68% and coming off the recent highs. That 10,700 area "should" provide some support so beware if it doesn't hold.




The EFA (I-fund) had a good day and the dollar dipping helped. It has bounced off of that rising support line and is heading toward the highs again, but I still have my eye on that large open gap near 65.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) may have been due for a day of rest after four decent positive days. We talked about the bottom of that bull flag possibly acting as support on any pullback, and filling that gap in the process would be nice and tidy, and potentially a good place for another bounce to start.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.