TSP Talk Blog

The week ended on a positive note with the Dow gaining 110-points on Friday and smaller percentage gains in the broader indices, but it wasn't quite enough to pull the S&P 500 (C-fund) and small caps (S-funds) out of the red for the week. The I-fund was roughed up a bit on Friday as the dollar spiked up, but it was actually the best performing fund for the week, despite the strength in the dollar.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

Earnings season is getting into full gear and so far the market hasn't been overexcited, or overly disappointed as the indices have drifted sideways for the most part. The political fallout from the Mueller report was chaotic - about what we might expect, but the market shrugged it off. The question is what will be the catalyst for stocks going forward?

Oil has been rising steadily and the market has liked that. We've had a few big name IPO's come out recently with mixed results. Zoom (ZM) was a huge success last week while LYFT was a disappointment. Uber may start trading as early as the end of this month, and I'm guessing they're worried after what happened to LYFT, although Uber is probably has better name recognition in that field.

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The S&P 500 (C-fund) saw some selling but the dip buyers kept things afloat and we saw small gains on Friday. It's still near the top of the rising wedge formation with support near 2880 and the gap down near 2840 is still open and a potential target.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was up slightly and it also created a positive reversal day - closing near the highs after testing and holding at that short-term rising support line, but it did fail to hold above the old highs.




The EFA (I-fund) has been trading in a tight range but still drifting higher despite new highs in the dollar last week.




Here is the chart of the dollar which popped up to new highs after a big gap up open on Friday. That bull flag worked perfectly, but that also means it could come down to fill that gap and retest the top of the flag.




The yield on the 10-year Treasury may have hit a peak after reversing down from the 50-day EMA - similar to what it did in early March. The question is whether it will now attempt to make a lower low as it did last time. As yields fall, bond prices tend to rise so...




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up on sharply on Friday and there seems to be a solid level of support in this 108 area where two trendlines meet and an open gap was filled. We'll see if bonds are going to remain in this rising channel, in which case it may be an opportunity for bonds. If that support breaks, however, all bets are off.




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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


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