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Earnings, Mueller Report, and a Holiday Shortened Week

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Stocks opened on the upside on Wednesday but we've seen a pattern of selling near the open lately, but also some buying toward the close giving us some "V" type of days. The Dow held up and was near the daily highs just before the close but the broader indices floundered a bit and we saw slight to modest losses in a few indices. Small caps lagged with a near 1% loss while the Transports led rallying on a series on decent earnings reports in that index.

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The equal weighted S&P 500 index was down about twice as much percentage-wise as the S&P itself so its still the larger tech stocks doing much of the pushing while we're seeing some internal weakness, but the recent weaker action, which is has not been much to talk about at all, may just be a typical pre-holiday reversal from the current uptrend, and that uptrend may resume after the holiday - I don't know. That's how holiday action can go.

We saw a new intraday all-time high in the Nasdaq 100 large technology index, but it couldn't close above it so the question of a possible double top, and in this case triple top, pullback is still out there.




Bonds were fairly flat on the day but the recent pullback may be giving some bullish signs as you'll see in the charts section below.

The Mueller report is supposed to be released today but I would be surprised if the market reacts much to it, just based on how it has been handling this issue over the last year. It doesn't seem interested.

Market / TSP Holiday on Friday. Per www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Friday, April 19 in observance of Good Friday. Consequently, the Thrift Savings Plan will not be updating share prices in any of the TSP funds for that day. Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (April 19) will be processed Monday night (April 22), at Monday's closing share prices."

Because of that, we'll take the day off and there will be no commentary on Friday.



The S&P 500 (C-fund) is within a stone's throw of new highs but so far this pre-holiday week has put some pressure on stocks and is stalling the index. I mentioned that in 2007 when the market peaked, we did get one more high in a similar situation so it wouldn't be too surprising if we do hit a new high at some point, but look how far it has come in 2019 with barely a hiccup. Meanwhile, earnings estimates are being lowered?




Here's a close up of the recent action and again, this could just be pre-holiday reversal type action, but we did get a rare negative outside reversal day on the S&P 500 yesterday with the high and lows exceeding Tuesday's high and low while closing below Tuesday's low.




The DWCPF (S-fund) led on the down side with a sharp sell-off taking it below its breakout level. It hit and held at the 20-day EMA and a couple other levels of support so it's not a major concern yet, but we'll see if the bulls can keep it above those levels going forward. This one has actually been consolidating a lot more than the S&P 500.




The Dow Transportation Index was up 1% on the earnings I mentioned yesterday. It pushed to new recent highs but there was a bit of a negative reversal here as well as it closed off the highs.




The EFA (I-fund) was up but continues to get squeezed in its wedge formation. There is still a lot of room on both sides of the rising trading channel. That means if the wedge breaks down there is still support near 65.50.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has been consolidating below the March highs for a few weeks now and it nearly filled the open gap the other day, but that is a large bull flag that could be signaling another round of buying in bonds is coming.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend and Happy Easter.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php


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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

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