TSP Talk Blog

Once again we're seeing wide trading ranges with the indices closing somewhere closer to the middle of the range, which is showing a lot of indecision from investors. Yesterday the Dow lost 32-points, but it was up 100 at one point, and down about 230 at the lows. And once again we saw stocks move higher during the last hour of trading, after the bond market had closed, although there was some selling in the final minutes.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

The market is concerned with bond yields right now. Not trade negotiations and tariffs. Not the Russian Collusion. Not the Fed - right now. It's about bond yields and the yield curve.

Yields were down across the board yesterday and...


Chart source: www.cnbc.com/bonds/


... stocks were down. They traded almost hand in hand.




And while yields dipped, the yield curve remained inverted.




Earnings season will be here soon enough, but until then, that's all we need to talk about - yields.

---

The S&P 500 (C-fund) has been staying very to close to those converging support and resistance lines. Sideways consolidations are not a bad thing and the bulls may just make another move if those resistance levels are taken out, so the question is whether the bears are willing to sell up here. So far that have taken stabs at it, but the dips are being bought fairly quickly each day and stocks have been closing off their lows lately. It may be now or never for the bears. Bulls take control over 2820. Bears below 2800. It closed yesterday at 2805.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was down but also closed well off the lows after successfully testing the 200-day EMA again, but it also failed at the 20-day EMA for a second straight day.




The Dow Transportation Index led on the upside as airline stocks did very well. But it too stalled at a major moving average yesterday.




The Financials are not looking very good here with a lower low being made this month, after making a higher high. For now, that's a negative reversal on a longer-term chart, especially if it closes March below 25.10. There's also a bear flag forming, which doesn't help.




The yield on the 10-year Treasury made another lower low yesterday, but it does feel a little stretched to the downside in the short-term.




The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up since bond prices go up when yields are down. It keeps stretching high and for now it is in a narrow rising trading channel.




Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at TSP Talk - Market Commentary

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.