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After opening down on Monday morning, stocks reversed and the rally continued, as did the pain trade for those trying to pick a top for this rally. The Dow, which was down nearly 100-points in early trading, ended the day with a solid 175-point gain. The gains were broad with all of the major indices participating, and the Nasdaq and small caps leading the way again. Trading volume was very light.

Daily TSP Funds Return

There was no major catalyst yesterday. Momentum is still working and the trend traders will continue to push until they see a reason to do otherwise.

Oil was down on the day but held above the 50-day EMA again.

After the bell Alphabet (a.k.a. Google) was down about 3% despite beating estimates. That could put some pressure on stocks today.

The S&P 500 / C-fund is now firmly above that 200-day EMA, but still below the 200-day Simple moving average, which is also a heavily watched indicator and what may be another line in the sand for the bears, now that many indices have jumped over some of the more obvious ones.

The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) also moved above the 200-day EMA, and the ease at which it did it was interesting. The question is whether it is getting investors overly complacent, or concerned. Concern would be better since market tend to climb those walls of worry. Complacency tends to get punished.

The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up but the I-fund was down after a strong rally in the dollar yesterday.

The High Yield Corporate Bonds hit another new high and stocks relish this. I thought we could be seeing a double top, but not yet apparently.

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) slipped for a second straight trading day yesterday. 106.75 should be a support area, but if it breaks there's a lot of open space below.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to:

Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

( Real-time)