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Another fairly flat day, but some late selling

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It was a fairly flat day on Thursday with very little movement until a bit of a sell-off into the close. The Dow, which was up about 25-points at the highs, closed near the lows losing 75-points on the day, or -0.29%. Once again the broader indices were even flatter. Small caps bounced back from Wednesday's losses with a modest gain.

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The dollar rallied over a half of a percent and we know what that does to the I-fund.

Trading volume remains quite light so we can see the indices get pushed around a little more easily, and that's what we've seen in the last few minutes of trading over the last two days. It's not very meaningful but if it causes the current investor's bullish sentiment to turnaround, it could trigger a more pronounced loss because of the light volume. It's why many professional traders take time off this month.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has been up for 8 straight sessions and that's its longest winning streak of the year, so this market is still doing some rotation since we haven't had many days when all of the major indices have been up, or down, on the same day.

The S&P 500 / C-fund pulled back toward the close to end the day with a slight loss. It's off the highs but not exactly falling, but rather drifting lower for a couple of days, which may be a good sign since it could be a bullish flag forming. But the January highs continue to be a formidable level for the S&P 500.

The small caps (S-fund) pushed into new high territory yet again on Thursday but once gain it failed to close above those recent highs. This is either another failed breakout, or it is just needing another little dip to give it the strength to push through eventually.

The EAFE (I-fund) had a bad day thanks to another rally for the dollar. We're seeing some small gaps get filled in both directions this week, which isn't a bad thing, but technically it is still below the key levels that keeps it in a bearish market.

Keeping an eye on Financials and oil shows the XLF backing off some yesterday but holding above rising support. But oil has been getting hit hard and is only about a $1 above some very important support. Neither have been big market movers but they do give us some insight into two major sectors that make up a large part of the major indices.

The AGG (bonds / F-fund) remains in that descending trading channel but it moved back above that 200-day EMA again, so this is in limbo. I keep thinking that eventually yields will move back above 3% and the AGG will fall, but it has been holding up rather well.

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Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley

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