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A pause before a busy week

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Stocks took a breather on Thursday with most of the broader averages flat to modestly lower on the day, although the rotation out of tech saw the Nasdaq 100 Index down more sharply (-0.79%) and the Dow up nearly 100-points, so it wasn't outright selling. It's been a clear move from growth to value stocks this week.

Daily TSP Funds Return

Yields continue to move and the 10-year T-bill yield traded in a fairly wide range yesterday closing at 2.93% after a low of 2.88% and a high of 2.99%.

Oil rallied for the 2nd day in the last three gaining 1.9%, taking it off its recent lows and that also helped the Dow as the big oil companies performed well.

Copper has had a big rally over the last week or so days taking it from below the 200-day EMA all the way up to new 2018 highs, where it paused at a possible 2017 double top. Why does this matter? Like oil, it can be used a gauge for the strength of the economy, and it looks like last Friday's strong the jobs report triggered this push higher.

Next week is a busy week with the North Korean Summit, a tariff agreement deadline on the 15th, plus three Central Bank meetings including the two-day FOMC meeting which will conclude on Wednesday where we are expecting the announcement of another interest rate hike from the Fed.

Other than that, the market may be on semi-hold waiting for these events to unfold, so enjoy your weekend!

Reminder: I'm going to be in and out of the office over the next couple of weeks [starting 6/7], doing some traveling, and may not be posting full reports during that time. I will always check in with something everyday, as I have done for the last 14+ years, because I hate to leave our readers high and dry. I'll leave you with some info from the TSP that may be of some interest to you...

The Thrift Saving Plan has provided some FAQs on the TSP Modernization Act and new Withdrawal Options, and you can find that by clicking here.

The S&P 500 / C-fund was down slightly on Thursday but taking a little break here seems reasonable after the rally we have had over the last few days. It may have taken investors past their comfort level after breaking above some key resistance, so sitting back and watching may be their plan as we head into a busy week next week. There are still some open gaps above that could be targets should the rally continue.

The S-fund was down sharply early on Thursday but it recovered about half of the losses by the close so there is still some dip buying. Whether that is coming from dip buying investors or trading programs trading, I don't know. The reason that matters is because trading programs can turn on a dime.

The EAFE Index / I-fund was down and closed below the 50-day EMA again, after one day above it. The dollar was down as well, which helped keep it from further losses.

The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was up sharply as it filled a small open gap created on Wednesday, but it closed well off the highs creating a possible negative reversal day. It's back above the 50-day EMA but those red open gaps below are still a draw.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to:

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend, and thanks for your patience over the next couple of weeks while I'm out and about.

Tom Crowley

Posted daily at

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

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