TSP Talk Blog

It was a schizophrenic type of day for stocks as the indices bounced between positive and negative territory all day. The Dow had been down about 130-points at the morning lows, then up 235 at the afternoon high, and eventually settled the day down 9-points. The Nasdaq continues to struggle, while the S&P 500 and small caps posted smaller losses.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

To give you an idea of how many times the S&P 500 moved from negative to positive territory, and back again yesterday, follow the red and green in this little intraday chart...

The dollar was up sharply yesterday which makes the high price that we got for the I-fund a little curious. I'm not sure what happened there, but I'm sure those in the I-fund aren't complaining. Normally any time the dollar is up big, anything priced in dollars can feel the pressure, especially the I-fund, and that could have been why U.S. stocks couldn't get much traction on Wednesday despite several attempts to rally.




Friday is Good Friday and that means the markets will be closed and the TSP will not process transactions (IFT's or otherwise) that day. Per tsp.gov, "Transactions that would have been processed Friday night (March 30) will be processed Monday night (April 2), at Monday's closing share prices." because of that. we will not be posting a commentary on Friday.


The S&P 500 / C-fund is still hanging precariously above the 200-day moving averages. There's some churning and burning going on here between the bulls and the bears, but the longer it churns in the current area, the more likely that this turns into another bear flag, and both of the bear flags shown on here have a downside target of about 2400, so this sucker needs to bounce quickly off these 200 day averages, or else.




The small caps / S-fund dipped on Thursday and will be looking to the 1303 - 1313 area for support.




The EAFE Index / I-fund had a bad day and the dollar was up strongly, but as I mentioned above, the I fund was given a great price for some reason.




The tech wreck may be getting extreme. According to sentimenTrader.com, "During the past week, an average of fewer than 8% of stocks in the Nasdaq 100 have managed to close above their 10-day average. According to the Backtest Engine, that ranks among the worst readings since 2000. After the 44 other days when it got this bad, the QQQ fund rallied over the next three months 85% of the time, averaging 8.8%."




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) powered above the 50-day EMA but fell back late to close just above it, so it wasn't able to move above the bear flag. But with yields slipping recently all eyes are on the possibility of a bottom being put in here for bonds.



Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.