TSP Talk Blog

It was another record breaking day for the Dow on Thursday after it gained another 141-points. That's the good news. If we take a glass half empty look, the Dow was up 260-points at one point on Thursday so it gave back quite a bit, and the broader indices were basically flat on the day, while the market leading Transports lost about 1.5% for a second straight day.

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A day after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin talked down the dollar, the president commented on the dollar in an interview in Davos on Thursday saying that he ultimately wants to see a stronger dollar and the strength of the economy should help achieve that. That triggered a big positive reversal for the green back so perhaps we will see an overdue relief rally to fill in those open gaps.




That rally in the dollar made the high flying I-fund a little nervous as the support of the parobolic rising trading channel is getting tested.




As we've talked about, we have now gone 400 days without a 5% pullback, the longest stretch in 90 years, and we haven't had a 1% down week in the S&P 500 since August, and we've only had two negative 1% weeks over the last year.


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) traded within its January narrow trading channel again. Enough said.




The small caps / S-fund pulled back very slightly from Wednesday's new all-time high, but was basically flat on the day.




The Dow Transportation Index pulled back sharply for a second straight day and has now broken below its rising trading channel. Is this a sign from the market leader, of things to come in the major indices?




The High Yield Corporate Bonds lost ground on Thursday creating a possible negative reversal day, but so far it may not be considered anything but a pause in momentum.




The AGG (bonds / F-fund) rebounded sharply with the help of the dollar's rebound. There is some serious resistance coming up so this bounce may be tested rather quickly, particularly once that gap is filled.

Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php

Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!

Tom Crowley


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