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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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After a very modest two day pullback on Wednesday and Thursday, stocks rebounded on Friday after what appeared to be a weaker than expected jobs report where we actually saw the unemployment rate move back up to 7.9%, and 157,000 jobs being added, which was slightly lower than estimates. But large upward revisions to the November and December's reports helped give the bulls another reason to buy, and actually the futures were up sharply before the report was released on some positive economic data out of Europe.

Bottom line is, the market is in an uptrend and it seems that anyone who missed the rally is buying on any kind of dip.



Here are the TSP fund returns for the week of January 28 through February 1.



And here are the final returns for the best January we've experienced since the 1990's.




In the short-term, the S&P 500 remains in a very narrow rising trading channel.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


Looking out a bit further I am concerned about the overhead resistance from the longer-term rising trading channel.


Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk


I have been thinking that the 1525 level on the S&P 500 may be a point where I may start taking some profits. While big money in the market is made my riding the strong bullish trends, at some point investors will look to lock in gains. The question we have to ask ourselves is, would we rather be safe and possibly miss out on some extra upside gains being the first one out the exit door before the rest of the investors start selling, or would you feel worse if you sold and the market continued to rise? It is a personal choice that should be determined by your tolerance for risk.

Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another
TSP Wrap Up.

Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Comments

  1. weekapaug's Avatar
    when do you see interest rates increasing
  2. tsptalk's Avatar
    When the economy starts to really improve. The fed is determined to keep pumping money into the system until "unemployment hits 6.5%". Until then, they should stay low. 2014? 2015?

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