TSP Talk Blog

Another mixed day for stocks on Tuesday with the Dow down, the S&P 500 and small caps flat, and the Nasdaq rallying again. Neither side (bulls / bears) really got what they wanted, however the bulls appreciate that 4200 held on the S&P 500, but the bears go into Wednesday with a negative reversal momentum on their side. Bonds rallied as yields rolled over, and the I-fund continues to lag, even through the dollar was down slightly.

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The Nvidia driven rally on Thursday saw some follow through on Friday with big gains in the stock indices across the board as a debt deal in DC appeared closer. Bonds were up as well to make it a sweep for the bulls in the TSP Funds. The Dow gained 329-points while the Nasdaq led the way again with a gain of over 2%. With a debt deal nearly done, will stocks continue to move higher this week, or will we get a "sell the news" reaction?

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Nvidia's earnings created a very weird day for stocks on Thursday as the Dow was down slightly but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq shined. The rally could be a sign that the pre-holiday reversal is over, but then again we didn't see gains across the board with small caps and the I-fund lagging badly, and about 2 stocks down for everyone up on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Yields and the dollar were up, and the Fed balance sheet went down another $20 billion and that put some pressure on many of the non-big ...

The market could not find a bid yesterday and we saw selling almost across the board. Large caps, small caps, Tech, Transports, etc., were all down sharply as the debt ceiling panic grows and the deadline gets closer. The Dow lost 256-points and there were similar percentage losses in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. However, something happened after the closing bell that may change things at least for the start of today.

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The indices continued to retrace last week's big 2-day rally, and perhaps right on cue as we enter the pre-holiday reversal period, and the debt ceiling deadline quickly approaching closer. The Dow lost 231-points, but worse than that was the negative reversal in many indices as the small caps were on the verge of a breakout, but instead failed and rolled over. Yields also rolled over as bonds were up for the first time in 8 trading sessions.

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