TSP Talk Blog

The bulls finally showed up putting together a strong rally on the second to last trading day of the year. The Dow gained 345-points and we saw gains of 1.5 to 2.5% in the various indices. Bond yields and the dollar were down making it easier for stocks, and a slightly weaker than expected initial jobless claims number helped investors lean on the side of the rate hikes may finally be making an impact of the labor market, which is what the Fed is looking for.

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Yes Virginia, there is no Santa Claus rally. Not yet anyway, and time is running out quickly. For years and years stocks had done well during either one, or both weeks surrounding Christmas, but so far that hasn't happened. And it's not just because we are in a bear market because I've shown a few examples of stocks doing very well at the end of December during bear market years. So unless something changes in the coming two to four trading days, it looks like it could actually be a rare "it's ...

Not the best action on a day that is historically, on average, one of the best trading days of the year for stocks. The Dow actually did manage to hold onto a small gain, but the broader indices were knocked down with tech and growth stocks suffering under the pressure of the recent rally in bond yields. The rally in yields hurt the bond market / F-fund the most. The dollar was down slightly helping commodity price remain buoyant.

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We got a nice holiday feel rally on Friday, maybe the first day that felt that way with volume dried up despite the full day of trading. The bulls took advantage and put together a nice rally. This week could be similar but when trading volume is light, headlines can push the market around fairly easily so the Santa Claus rally will be at the mercy of those headlines, which will hopefully be on the muted side. For the week we saw slight to minor losses in stocks, although the I-fund continues ...

What a day for stocks, just as we were getting settled in for a more quiet trading period before for the long holiday weekend. The losses was a major story, but the reversal may be a bigger story. We had a sell off that saw the Dow down over 800 at the lows but ended the day down 349-points. The S&P 500 was down 114 at its lows before the midday reversal but that low on the S&P may have served a purpose. We'll discuss that below. Bond yields were down slightly (bonds flat), but the ...