TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were down this week but with the previous Friday's action lumped into this week due to the TSP being closed, the C and I-fund recorded gains for the week. That was not the case for S-fund who had averaged out about even for the week going into Tuesday. The indices were looking to be building on the previous week's late momentum, but instead pulled back mid-week. Wednesday and Thursday's action pulled the indices down enough to keep the prices away from the weekly highs. Yet there was some life from the bulls Friday to put up modest gains that led to some weekly gains in the C-fund.

The action this week was choppy. This tells us investors are unsure how to feel about the inflation, jobs data, and the strong retail numbers. It all boils down to if and how the Fed will redirect its rate hike course. Everything is speculation and each day investors have a different interpretation. We are still in the midst of a step higher during a bear market. I find it impressive that the bulls remain intact and have not quickly given back the gains of the last month after running into technical resistance. This is a sign of resilience that has many speculating that we saw a bottom in October.

Next week is Thanksgiving week. This is typically a positive week for stocks, but this is not a typical year where the bulls get to boost their dominance. We are in a bear market that remains volatile, and that volatility might pick up with less volume around the holiday.

The I-fund remains in the spotlight after outperforming yet again against the C and S-fund that are the typical stars. Check out the charts below to see the major technical differences in these funds' corresponding indices and ETFs.


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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 18:




SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) could not seem to trade above its 200-day EMA for long. The ETF spent some time Tuesday trading above the 200-day EMA price intraday but ultimately closed below it where it remained for the rest of the week. To the credit to the bulls, the index did not immediately turn back down to fill the open gap below after the failed move to the 200-day EMA. Instead, the ETF remained buoyed below the moving average ending the week with a modest gain on Friday. The open gap above may have some buyers' attention as the collective herd wants to be in while the index fills this gap. Friday's gains resurrected the C-fund from potential losses for the week. The boost Friday left the C-fund with a gain of 0.31% while the S-fund was down in the same time period.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was not facing its 200-day EMA but rather could not break above the bottom of a similar open gap to SPY that coincided with rising resistance of the trading channel formed from the last two months of action. The index slipped deeper and eventually retested the 50-day EMA for support which held for the index on Thursday. The index bounced back some Friday but was off its highs for the day at close. The mid-week pull-back was responsible for the 0.97% loss by the S-fund this week. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds by having the only loss across the week.




Leading the TSP funds was the I-fund (EAFE Index /EFA). EFA managed to end the previous week by gapping up above its 200-day EMA. That was not recorded by the TSP as the TSP was closed Friday, so the jump was recorded into this week's gains. The ETF kept its price above that 200-day EMA aside from a lower open Thursday which filled an open gap from the previous Friday. The ETF did come off its lows but was under the price established at the previous Friday's rally. Nonetheless, the I-fund led the TSP funds this week with a gain of 1.47%. Nearly a full percent above the next best performance by the F-fund. The I-fund has significantly outperformed the other funds for November with a gain of 9.83% through the month. The next best gain for November is the S-fund's 2.55% addition.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) kept above its 50-day EMA this week. It has been months since the ETF has been able to consistently trade above this moving average and it has done so with open gaps lingering below. The F-fund came off its early highs for the week but still managed to outperform the C and S-fund with a gain of 0.48% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.