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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Inflation in the U.S. is cooling. Or at least that is what the latest Consumer Price Index suggests. The year-over-year price increase for the CPI report from October 2021 to this October was 7.7%. Not great, not ideal, but in the right direction from the 8.2% expected. Inflation is still high but the lower-than-expected report ignited hopes that the Federal Reserve will moderate its rate hike plan. The Fed had suggested a possibility of slowing its pace in the previous FOMC meeting last week; investors see this lower-than-expected report as a sign that the Fed's rate hikes are actually effective and may allow them to slow down their current unprecedented pace of rate hikes.


The market's reaction was explosive. The S-fund outperformed the TSP funds Friday with a gain of 6.88%. Both the C and I-fund were up more than 5.5% on Thursday alone making it the largest single day return for stocks since the 2020 pandemic swings.

Stocks were down for the week heading into Thursday with the collapse in the crypto sector along with uncertainty over elections cutting down early gains. This is not a resolved issue with some spots in both the Senate and House of Representative not decided. Nonetheless the stock indices added to Thursday's gains Friday. The TSP was closed for Veteran's day so those gains will be dissolved into Monday's performance.

Now we must question if these gains can sustain higher or if current prices can even hold. Volatility has been high so there is no safe bet that a sizable move to the downside isn't possible to adjust the overly bullish sentiment created by the CPI report. With earnings season over the next FOMC meeting weeks away, there is nothing obvious to be the next catalyst in short distance. However, last Thursday's gains were not a sign that the bear market is over but rather was a product of a bear market. Bear markets create explosive gains on the way down so it may hurt to miss out on gains but don't get trappped into buying into top before the over zealous price gets corrected.

Stocks were not the only impressive performers, the F-fund gained over 2% for the week and the ETF BND climbed out of previous technical hurdles.

Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP Talk AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 10:

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The three TSP stock charts made significant technical jumps Thursday. The charts below also include Friday's action despite no reflection yet in the TSP. But the differences in where they landed all can be looked at how where they were in reaction to their 200-day EMAs at Friday's close. The S&P 500 closed at its 200-day EMA (resistance), the DWCPF (S-fund) never got a chance to test its 200-day EMA, and the I-fund traded above it after Friday's gains.

The S-fund outperformed this week but the three indices/ETFs all made similar moves throughout the week.


S&P 500 (C-fund)

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DWCPF (S-fund)

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EFA (I-fund)

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BND (F-fund) made a significant move above its 50-day EMA for the first time since August. The F-fund gains 2.29% for the week.

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Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes