TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The bulls could not sustain the previous week's rally into this week. Instead stocks saw four straight days of losses. The C and S-fund produced gains of more than 1% Friday to erase of the previous two day's losses and ultimately ending this week near where the previous Friday's rally started. Leading up to Friday's gain it was all doom and gloom for the markets. Investors and economists are beginning to accept that a recession is immanent considering the current GDP projections and the Federal Reserve's plans to continue raising borrowing costs. But Friday's gains reminded us that the economy and the stock market don't necessarily follow each other. A repeat of the first half of 2022 is not the obvious outcome for the second half but investors remain cautious for now.

The charts corresponding to the TSP charts do not look attractive. They are all in downtrends that is months old and have overhead resistance at every step. But the battle becomes the balance of reclaiming the losses of the first half while not getting caught with further downside. The move tends to become to make smaller moves and shorten exposure time. Some TSP Talk members have been able to time these bear market rallies and get out before they lose what they've gained. Its those who chase late that have paid the price (literally). The optimal game plan seems to be a battle of patients and risk tolerance. We are seeing more partial allocations in stocks while keeping some cash safe in the G-fund.

The days of buy and hold are gone for now but that does not mean there is not opportunity in this market. It takes a game plan and the mental and emotional strength to miss out on losses and sell when losses have accumulated. Friday was evidence of life in the bulls hoping to catch an extra day of gains can be fatal to the gains produced. Be cautious and lock in gains when you can.
Markets will be closed on Monday for the 4th of July. Enjoy your holiday!

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending July 1:




SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell the first four days of the week and closed an open gap from the previous week by Wednesday. The ETF looked like it might make it five straight days of losses with shaky action early Friday but buyers pushed the SPY into gains in the second half of the day. The late rally Friday erased Wednesday and Thursday's losses and put the C-fund down 2.18% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) lagged the other TSP funds. Similarly to the C-fund, the index was down four of the five days this week with some gains Friday to erase Thursday's losses. The S-fund ended the week with a loss of 2.90%.




EFA's (EAFE Index / I-fund) share commonalities with the C and S-fund charts. They all are under their 20-day EMAs but and off their recent lows. But unlike SPY and DWCPF, EFA is currently prices below the low of May and ended down 0.02% Friday to complete five straight day of losses. The ETF now has two open gaps above that would require pricing above both the 20 and 50-day EMAs to fill. The I-fund was down 1.87% for the week.





BND (Bonds / F-fund) outperformed the TSP funds this week with a 1.33% gain with most of the gains coming in the last three days where the ETF gapped up into Thursday and Friday. The week started by filling a gap left behind the previous week (blue). The bottom of the filled gap acted as support and was the low of the week and the turning point for the gains that followed. BND spent some time above its 50-day EMA on Friday but ultimately closed just below the moving average. To fill the gap left behind in May, BND's price would need to extend beyond the 50-day EMA, something it hasn't done in 2022.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.