TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Prices were back and forth this week continuing the volatile course the market has taken during our interesting times of high inflation. TSP participants missed out on the previous Friday's action; with the TSP closed for maintenance, members were unable to get in or out of funds. But the market remained in that range established from Friday's action for the rest of the week and even stretched higher on Thursday. By Friday the S&P 500 was down slightly for the week but the TSP stock funds held to gains for the week given the previous week ended Thursday. The S-fund led the week with a gain of 2.25%. The C-fund was behind with a gain of 1.31%.

Stocks produced their high for the week at Thursday's close but couldn't follow through after the May jobs report was released on Friday. Although nearly 400,000 jobs were added on the month, it was the slowest pace since April of last year. Investors questioned whether they are starting to see the effects of the Fed's rate increases and monetary tightening on the economy. The market is caught between high inflation and a hawkish Fed yet the bulls and bears have been able to keep each other honest the last couple weeks. Has the market established a bottom to the latest poor start to the year, or will the weight of more rate hikes be too much to sustain the higher prices? That debate is what keeps prices jumping back and forth for now and makes for good quick in and out capitalization but frustrating longer term trades.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for a week and half ending on June 15th. As of now, the committee is expected to raise rates by a half point once again despite falling numbers on the jobs report.

If you haven't already, we encourage you to set up your account at TSP.gov. Some are having difficulties doing so but it is better to set up sooner than when you're ready to make a trade near the deadline.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 3:




SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) established itself between its 20 and 50-day EMAs this week. On Thursday the 20-day-EMA market the lows (support) and the 50-day EMA marked the highs (resistance) for the day. A pull back Friday following the May jobs report put SPY in negative territory for the week but the C-fund remained in positive territory going off the previous Thursday's close. The C-fund ended the week up 1.31%.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did not reach its 50-day EMA to test for resistance but rather found resistance from a rising trend line. The 20-day EMA did hold as support Thursday. Nonetheless, the S-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a gain of 2.25%.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) jumped between its 50-day EMA after trading above it for the first time since early April. This course of action between the 50-day EMA took the ETF off the rising support established through the second week of May. The I-fund lagged the TSP funds with a gain of just 0.22% for the week.





BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up the previous Friday while the TSP was closed but gapped down Tuesday to erase the opportunity for TSP members to take some profits. The 50-day EMA held as support shifting the momentum bonds had built through most of May. The ETF BND ended the week back below its 20-day EMA and down 0.80% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.