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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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An ugly week for stocks gave the C-fund its sixth straight week of losses, but a bear market rally Friday brought the indices out from the depths. The S&P 500 was at the brink of entering a technical bear market going into Friday. Action has been poor for months but it is a fall of 20% from the highs where Wall Street will consider the index in a bull market; the S&P 500 was down 17.6% from its high on January 3rd coming into Friday. The distinction is arbitrary yet significant to investors and it could have been this threat of a technical bear market that sparked a rally Friday. The S&P 500 (C-fund) rose 2.4% Friday to erase half of the week's losses, but the bigger story was the DWCPF's (S-fund) gain of 4.1% Friday that erased a majority of the week's losses for the S-fund. Now the DWCPF (S-fund) is already considered to be in a technical bear market so Friday's rally may have been a typical bear market rally where we see the biggest single day gains, we can remember such days during the sell-off in February and March of 2020.

So the argument among the bulls and bears is now whether Friday was the spark of a bigger round of buying to establish a bottom, or a stand along spike amongst a continual plummet of stock prices. There is not any real good news coming to light to get buyers excited, in fact inflation is still high despite the recent rate increases from the Fed. But sometimes it takes a good couple of days before fear of mission out (FOMO) takes over as the fuel to the fire; the fire in this scenario is a rally in stocks. Monday's action will be very telling of what Friday's action really meant. Some will wait it out and jump in when it looks like the coast is clear, others will jump out of stocks as soon as their damaged portfolios reclaim some health. The real hero are those who bought into stocks on Friday at the higher price. We wish you the best of luck and you will never be forgotten.

It has been tough to lose money for many but it can at least be comforting to know you're not alone. It has been a tough year for the best but we can only move forward from here and we're in this together at TSP Talk.

Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending May 13:

SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) slipped deeper this week keeping the trend in decline. The declining trend line that we'll consider the top of a trading channel is running about even with the 20-day EMA. The two of those together would be considerable resistance for the chart to break above. But this week that was not in question. The ETF slipped with falling support line. A rally Friday did erase 2.3% of the week's losses cutting the weekly losses to 2.36%. There is still plenty of room above in the current trading channel and Friday's gains may be enough to entice new buyers.

SPY (C-fund) closed a gap from April of 2021 this week. The ETF slipped down further below so the closed gap did not initiate new buying.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) opened this week below the falling support of April. The losses grew in magnitude from there and on Wednesday the S-fund was down 7.62% for the week. Over the last two days of the week the S-fund price climbed 5.6% to end the week with a loss of 2.47%; an appreciable loss considering where the index as headed mid-week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) dipped below it's high before the pandemic induced sell-off in 2020. This could be significant enough to be argued as support.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) gapped down to start the week which put the ETF below the previous low of the year established in early March. The I-fund hit its low for the week, and now low for the year, on Thursday. The I-fund added 2.6% Friday to erase most of the week's losses but did end the week with a collective 0.47% loss.

BND (Bonds / F-fund) outperformed stocks this week and was able to produce a respectable gain of 0.9%. The ETF did find resistance in its 20-day Thursday and marked the high for the week. After running up 1.3% for the week through Thursday, BND pulled back 0.4% Friday to finish the F-fund week with a 0.9% gain.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Last Look Report
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes