View RSS Feed

TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

Rate this Entry
Stocks not only continued their 2022 sell-off this week, but they also accelerated it. All three TSP stock funds had their worst week so far. The S&P 500 (C-fund) had its worst week since March 2020. The S-fund continued to be the worst performer and lost 7.58% this week to completely erase 2021 gains plus more. The other option for TSP members was the G-fund and F-fund which gained 0.03% and 0.05% for the week respectively. Early rallies turned into selloffs late in the day this. Bulls have been unable to gain traction and now momentum itself is against them. More investors are just moving out of the way which can perpetuate more losses.

The correction in small caps is not new. The S-fund has entered a bear market and has taken down investors waiting for the rebound. We all know this will end eventually, but the question is how to navigate. For those who are fully invested, they fear the market will rebound with big gains eventually thus have let themselves sink with the ship. Many others have tried to time an entry only to be too early and felt the consequences. The truth is it is a volatile time for stocks and a day of gains will not guarantee follow through; we saw that with the sell-off seen in February of 2020 that contained some of the largest days of gains on the way. If you're feeling conservative, stay out of the way; if your appetite for risk is high then try to time this market.

The main narrative has not changed which is the Federal Reserve is hitting the brakes on monetary stimulus in order to raise interest rates and reduce liquidity. Easy money, high liquidity, and inflation have been the drivers of the stock market climb since spring 2020 and now central banks are trying to take that away. So, it is sensible why the markets have chosen now to reduce their value.

Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 21:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) nearly slipped down to its 200-day EMA Friday. An open gap from October is just below the 200-day EMA so it will be a battle of support from moving averages versus the need to wait to buy until that gap is filled. The SPY had its worst week since March 2020 after falling 5.67% in four days.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) produced its fourth straight week of losses, and this week was the worst of them. The S-fund lost 7.58% just this week; that is just shy of what the C-fund has lost in the last three weeks. So far in 2022 the S-fund has declined 12.51% erasing the gains of 2021.



This is a little more than a year's perspective for the small cap index. The index was at its high in November and has since retreated to a price not seen since December of 2020.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) has held up better than the U.S. stock funds this year but still gave up 2.91% this week. That pushed EFA down below its 200-day EMA where it filled a gap left from December. The index also fell below rising support that some may have thought would keep this ETF afloat.





BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped down to start the week but worked their way out of the hole over the next four day. The index gapped up again on Friday and settled just above last Friday's close to give the F-fund a gain of 0.05% to outperform the G-fund.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to Digg Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to del.icio.us Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to StumbleUpon Submit "TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up" to Google

Comments


S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes