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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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The weekly return for U.S. stocks weaved from losses, to gains, and back to losses through the progression of the week. Neither the bulls nor the bears could maintain control for very long. The S&P 500 started the week poorly but reversed mid-day to erase most of the early losses. The momentum carried into positive territory for the week while Jerome Powell spoke at the Senate confirmation hearing. Powell reiterated to the Senate the Fed's plans to combat inflation by using monetary tightening to slow down demand. That includes possibly three rate hikes in 2022. This gave some life to stock indices, but it was temporary; indices sold-off yet again Thursday following inflation data putting the S&P 500 in negative territory for the week.

This was the second straight week of losses for the C-fund and third straight week of losses for the S-fund. The S-fund is now down 5.33% in just the first two weeks of the year. The I-fund came off its mid-week highs by Friday's close but was still able to maintain a gain for the week. The I-fund tends to get overlooked as a topic here on TSP Talk but it has been the best option outside of cash so far this year. Bonds have been selling off despite usually being thought of as the less risky asset. The F-fund was up for the week Thursday but fell 0.53% Friday to end the week down 0.31% and is currently down 1.74% for 2022.

The three charts that make up the TSP stock funds have all developed technical difference. We've seen an attraction to the S-fund for some time as investors think it will eventually have to make its way to catch up with large caps. But that still hasn't developed, and the index keeps testing investors waiting for a bottom in the recent rut.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 14:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) found support in Monday's early sell-off but gave up the gains developed over the next few days. Currently the index is just above its 50-day EMA. A rising trading channel has developed, and the next test would be the top which would be new all-time highs. The C-fund was down 0.29% this week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) may be breaking down from a descending head and shoulders pattern. Momentum has kept this index falling but longer-term charts point to old support for a possible bottom. Whatever the next direction we can be confident that this index will continue to see large swings in both directions. The S-fund fell 1.15% this week.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) came off its Wednesday highs to end the week to fill the gap left behind from Wednesdays open. The ETF may have hit resistant prices from the peaks of last week, November, and September. The ETF currently sits above its 50-day EMA. The I-fund led the TSP funds this week with a 0.19% gain.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) has been in trouble lately as investors sell-off their bond holdings. Some relief came this week producing a bear flag, but it broke down Friday to give back the week's early gains and give the F-fund a loss of 0.31% for the week to lag both the C and I-funds.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes