TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stock action was scattered day to day this week but there was an overall rotation from small caps to large caps. Investors now see the top large cap companies as the safe haven of the market. This keeps the large cap indices up but leaves a divide within them between the few heavy weighted companies and the rest. The S-fund lost 2.25% this week as investors retreated from general stocks. All while the S&P 500 chopped around throughout the week until establishing and holding onto its weekly gains Thursday afternoon. The C-fund established a new all time high Thursday but closed down Friday.

The market was exposed to retail data, jobless claims, uncertainty to the Federal Reserve, rising covid data, Austria going into lockdown, and more. This is all while the extended large caps are making new highs. Earnings season provided the relief to ignite buying but since earnings reports have nearly dried up the focus must go somewhere else. Right now the hope for investors is the self fulfilling prophecy of seasonality. Next week is Thanksgiving which typically is prosperous for the bulls. If this is the case then the underperforming S-fund may be setting up buying opportunities at the right time. Although its always worth caution to step into over extended markets; but in the age of NFTs and cryptocurrencies, buying into the world's largest economies stock market at its highs is a walk in the park.

In all, investors are growing noticeably cautious but that may be a healthy sign for stocks. Its when confidence is so high that nobody cares to look both ways before crossing the street where you see the harshest outcomes. Know your risk appetite, make a plan, and keep your emotions away.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 19:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) resumed its trend higher this week keeping the climb tight. This looks like a possible bear flag which tend to break down but the pole is short and the flag has momentum. New highs were established on Thursday but the index pulled back slightly Friday to close the week off the new highs. The C-fund was a recipient of the rotation out of small caps this week yet still gained just 0.37%. This was the best return among the TSP funds for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was the donor of the rotation this week and investor ran to large cap companies. This sank the S-fund 2.25% for the week to outlandishly lag the other TSP funds. But this may have made it a target for next week's holiday trading as a cheaper option. We a lot of that this week with TSP AutoTracker members moving to the S-fund but they may have been a day or two too early. Sign up for the Last Look Report to follow the AutoTracker moves throughout the week.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) also fell this week with the covid situation in Europe growing worse. This index closed at its lowest point on Friday below its 50-day EMA. The index had been trading above its 50-day EMA since mid-October. The I-fund was down 0.79% for the week.





BND (Bonds / F-fund) slipped deeper early this week but became a target for those leaving stocks starting Wednesday. The index produced gains the last three trading days of the week gaining 0.48% in those three days. The net was was a gain of 0.09% for the week due to Tuesday's losses. The index sits below its 50 and 200-day still but is now back above its 20-day EMA.





Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.