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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks broke out of their steady climb higher and produced negative returns for the week. It was an end to a five week winning streak for the C-fund. The losses came across the TSP stock funds, yet the funds came off their lows and showed resilience with plenty of reasons to pull back further. Investors are still eager to join the action of the last month and a pull back Tuesday and Wednesday gave them their entry point.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) ended an eight day winning streak Tuesday with some gloom from a record high on the whole sale prices annual rate, but also just a need for relief. More inflation data came even more daunting on Wednesday with the Consumer Price Index reaching an annual rate of 6.2% which hasn't been recorded since 1990. Inflation has been a main focus in the economic comeback from the pandemic but it has persisted longer the Federal Reserve had forecasted. All the while the Fed has kept rates low and are just now beginning to slow the bond buying programs. The high inflation puts pressure on the Fed to raise rates sooner and more quickly than anticipated. This is not a favorable outcome for investors who love free or cheap money being pumped into the economy.

But we have to give credit to resilience of buyers who believe in this economy in the face of a gap in jobs and workers along with high inflation. Or they economy is becoming less important to stock investors compared to speculation and being on the right side of a rally. When things are going well some bulls forget about previous corrections and as the rallies continue, the bears on the sideline wish they too had forgotten.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 12:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) slipped below the rising support of the last month on Wednesday but rebounded off the lows to cut the weekly losses from over 1% on Wednesday to just 0.27% at Friday's close. The trend is still up for this index and this week's action reinforces the bulls belief in this rally.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also sold off Wednesday finding the lows of the day at the interception of two support lines. But it too cut those losses to just 0.19% after ended down Wednesday deeper than the other funds at 1.51%. There was similar action in this fund mid to late-October and the result was a continuation of gains to new highs.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) stand out from the U.S. stock funds as it has not been reaching new highs and trading new price action. The I-fund has not even touched its last high produced in early September. Still this week the index filled an open gap on Wednesday pull back and did erase Wednesday's losses Friday but still lagged the TSP stock funds with a 0.35% loss for the week.

BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up for the week on Tuesday reaching closing price not seen since September. However the good times were short and the index fell hard compared to its usual swings. It was down to its 200-day EMA by Wednesday and slipped further from there. This gave the F-fund the worst loss of the week among the TSP funds as it fell 0.73%.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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