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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Returns were mixed this week among all the TSP funds. The C-fund, which follows the S&P 500 index, had its best week since August while the small cap S-fund was flat for the week and the foreign market I-fund was down more than a quarter percent. However the greatest loss for the TSP funds came from the F-fund. Investors are exiting bonds even with a deal made to avoid payment default by the government until December. The volatile action continued coming into this week but leveled off by Friday. The first three trading days each saw more than a 1% move in the C-fund; the gains on Thursday were more than 1% intraday before sliding off the highs for the day to a 0.85%. Friday the trading range tightened and the index lost just 0.19% on the day. October has so far held up to its volatile reputation and we haven't reached earnings season yet. Despite ending the week about even, the S-fund shared this volatile trend and even gave up most of its gains of the week on a 0.70% loss on Friday.

The drama on Capitol Hill triggered some moves in stocks and bonds. Less than two weeks from a debt crisis with potential to send the economy into a recession, Congress came to a deal to support the Treasury's existing bills without allowing new spending until December where a new deal will be needed. This kicking the can down the road fixed the immediate fear of economic calamity but did not fix the long term solution that will need to be faced eventually.

A jobs report Friday brought mixed reactions as a projected 500,000 jobs added turned to actually be a mere 194,000 jobs added. Despite the miss in expectations and the disappointing performance of the labor force, stocks did not sell-off at the sign of weakness. Rather there were mixed feelings. A missed jobs report would give the Federal Reserve reason to further delay their tapering of bond purchases but the question is whether the miss was a bad enough to do the job. Uncertainty levels are up on the subject and the market does not like uncertainty. The FOMC committee meets at the beginning of November to decide.

Looking forward we have earnings season coming which always provokes money to be put to work but the speculations on the effect of the delta variant during the third quarter will be the focus. It will be a fight between underperformance and underestimation.

The major stock exchanges will be open Monday but the bond market and TSP will be closed for the Columbus day. Any IFTs made until the deadline Tuesday will be for October 12th's close of business.

Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the auto tracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 8:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) continued to oscillate with wide trading ranges to start the week jumping between weekly gains and losses. It was the gap up on Thursday that solidified the gains for the week but the index came off its highs after filling the open gap from September. The index partially filled the new open gap on Friday but the 50 and 20-day EMA were enough support to keep buyers at that price. The missed jobs report on Friday brought mixed emotion but a weekend to digest it significance may spark a direction. The C-fund was up 0.83% for the week for its best week since August.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) shared the volatile action of large caps and produced an open gap on Thursday as well. The top of the gap held and support where the index closed at its lows for the day. That gave the S-fund a 0.05% gain for the week despite the volatile days it took to get there.

EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) lagged the TSP stocks funds with a loss of 0.27% for the week. At its low for the week the index found support off its 200-day EMA before regaining most of its weekly loss from there.

This was EFA's first interaction with its 200-day EMA since late October, nearly a year ago.

BND (Bonds / F-fund) slipped without support this week as investors continued to exit the bond market even after a deal was made to keep up on bond payments. The index fell below its 200-day again EMA and this time fell deeper.

The last time BND fell below its 200-day EMA it remained below it for nearly 4 months. The F-fund lagged the TSP funds with a loss of 0.79% for the week.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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