TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

It was a week of choppy action for stocks battling between gains and losses. The C and S-funds were about even with gains for the week going into Friday which is where the two funds diverged. All of the TSP funds were down on Friday but the greatest loss went to the C-fund which was down 0.91% while the S-fund took back just 0.09%. This split the funds giving the C-fund a 0.54% loss for the week while the S-fund ended with a gain of 0.26%. The I-fund lagged the TSP funds with a 0.85% loss while battling with a rally in the dollar.

Investors were given a number of economic reports to digest this week. Retail sales came in better than expected, jobless claims jumped up higher than the previous week and the consumer price index, a key indicator of inflation, jumped higher in August from July. The overall picture painted by the reports was the economy has not rolled over due to the covid-19 delta variant but there is still plenty of uncertainty ahead.

This was the second consecutive week of losses for the S&P 500 which is the first time that has happened since May.

Bonds were down just 0.02% on the week after reaching a new high for the month on Tuesday followed by three down days to finish the week to take back the gains.

All attention will now be focused on next week's FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve has hinted at beginning tapering bond purchases this year but has also emphasized they are data driven. The announcement to start tapering bonds is not expected at this meeting which leaves one more meeting in November. Many think tapering won't actually start until 2022.

Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the auto tracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 17:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) jumped back and forth between gains and losses throughout the week. A lot of that action was centered around a rising trend line from the lows of July and August. SPY went into Friday with a 0.37% gain on the week and the day provided a 0.91% sell-off to ultimately give the C-fund a 0.54% loss for the week. The index closed just above its 50-day EMA and about even with its 50-day SMA (Visit out chart education page to learn the difference between the moving averages) which is not shown on the chart below. The 50-day EMA is thought by analysts to be the ultimate test for the S&P 500. Either the correction continues or the index performs its usual rally comeback rally we've been use to in the pull back.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) began the week at its 50-day EMA and ended just above it. In the mean time the index price moved back and forth through the 50-day EMA although only closed below it once on Tuesday. One of two open gaps from August were filled this week. It seemed likely momentum would likely take the index down to the lower open gap but as instead buyers were attracted to the lower price. The S-fund led the TSP funds for the week with a gain of 0.26%.





EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was drifting lower this week but had the top of the open gap acting as support, that is until Friday came. Friday the index closed that open gap and fell below its 20-day EMA for the first time this month and spent some time intraday below its 50-day EMA before closing just above it for the week. The trend line formed from the lows of July and August were also broken and closed below. The I-fund lagged the TSP funds with a 0.85% loss for the week.



The rally in the dollar Friday was a contributor to the pull back in EFA.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) rallied the first two days of the week ending Tuesday with a 0.40% gain for the two days. In that time the index broke above overhead flat resistance that had held since mid-August. The next three days were spent giving those gains back and falling back below the 20-day EMA. The F-fund ended the week with a 0.02% loss.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

wwww.tsptalk.com
Facebook | Twitter

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.