TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The short week ended on a positive note after jumping between weekly gains and losses. Anticipation of inflation and job market news kept prices steady leading up to the release of the jobless claims Thursday which came in at their lowest weekly level since the beginning of the pandemic. The market was down early Thursday but recovered most of the early losses ahead of Friday's jobs report. The May jobs report came out at goldilocks levels. Jobs added were less than expected but not by much while unemployment percentage dropped 0.1% more than expected. This had a mix of good and bad news and neither were extreme. Investors bought stocks following the report with such a lackluster report not likely to provoke the Federal Reserve to do any monetary tightening or tapering sooner than later.

Bond prices also jumped higher following the jobs report pushing their weekly return from negative to positive as with U.S. stocks. Every TSP fund ended the week with gains but all under 1% gains. The I-fund outperformed the week more than doubling the return of the S-fund. Large caps (C-fund) are just about even with record prices and with the assumed supply of new money being added to the markets a test of new highs would not be surprising. There is a week and a half of trading prior to the next FOMC meeting that will again give investors more insight to how long they have full support from the Federal Reserve.

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Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 4:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) started the week near its highs but gave those early gains back quickly Tuesday morning. The 20-day EMA was tested on Thursday and its safe to say it held as support. The index continues to comfortably trade at its current levels. An attempt to leg up is possible buy may also disturb the calm volatility that's continued since mid-May. The C-fund was up 0.64% for the week after the buying following the jobs report gave the index a 0.88% gain of Friday.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did not end as upbeat as large caps on Friday. The gains were their Friday but were not enough to counter Thursday's pull back. The index remained off its highs for the week but did hit its lows at the 20-day EMA on Thursday. The S-fund lagged the TSP stock funds with a 0.33% gain for the week.





EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) jumped below its tight rising trading channel Thursday but was right back in Friday morning where it remained. The index did not outperform Friday but did not need to get the greatest return for the week. Momentum is up for this index but resistance will be test if that momentum continues. The I-fund was up 0.72% for the week.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) slid to its 20 and 50-day EMAs on Thursday. The jobs report through life into the bond market and the index broke out of its bull flag and nearly tested its 200-day EMA by close. The F-fund gained 0.37% on Friday alone which pushed the fund into a 0.15% gain for the week. The indices previous moves towards the 200-day EMA were short lived.





Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

www.tsptalk.com
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.