TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks were mixed by the end of the week but shared the theme of inconsistency. Large money managers are moving their large sums of money around as the quarter winds down. The effect is rotation among stocks and between stocks and bonds all without too much reasoning. Retail investors are doing their best to keep up day to day while analysts struggle to tie reason and headlines to the market's random walk. The most interesting action came in the last hour or two of trading Friday when stocks sprinted to new closing highs (for the C-fund). The day before the S&P 500 was below the previous two weeks trading range.

The rotational action was moving money out of small caps (S-fund) right out the gate. Some of that money moved to large caps but some moved to bonds that were able stay in positive territory for the week all the while pulling bond yields down. The S-fund did have a late come back finishing down 2.24% to lag the TSP funds but was up from more than 5% down for the week by the end of Wednesday. The C-fund outperformed the TSP funds with a 1.58% gain and ending the week at a new high two cents higher than March 17th close thanks to Friday's late rally.

The action has confused market players but these swings late in a quarter are normal. There are a few more days left in the quarter which ends Wednesday so maybe until then the news headlines aren't the best resource. Instead use this upcoming short week to reevaluate your own portfolio. If you like how you're positioned stay put but take some time to think over your goals and risk tolerance. Next week is a short week with the markets closed Friday which is also when the next jobs report will be released giving a whole three day weekend for it to digest among market participants.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending March 26:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was up early in the week but slipped from there. The index opened lower Thursday and took the opportunity to test its 50-day for support which held and rebounded the index back above its 20-day EMA by close. The next day was positive but a late rally put the C-fund at a record closing price. The C-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 1.58%.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was down early and by Wednesday's close was down more than 5% for the week. Money moved into bonds which brought down the bond yield and in turn put pressure on small cap financial stocks. The 50-day EMA did not hold as support with the heavy selling pressure in small caps and eventually was the mark price of Friday's late rally. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds and even with a couple of back to back gains to end the week was down 2.24%.




EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) found support from its 50-day EMA Thursday and the index regained its weekly losses for the rest of the week. A gap up Friday put the index back above its 20-day EMA and eventually closed with its head above water. The I-fund came out of the turbulent week with a slight gain of 0.05%.




BND (Bonds / F-fund) did not make any dramatic moves but rotation brought some money into bonds and a week of gains were produced. The 20-day EMA held as resistance Thursday and the moves back into stocks late it the week took bonds off their mid-week highs. None the less the F-fund gained 0.35% for the week to outperform all the C-fund for the week.





Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley

www.tsptalk.com
Facebook | Twitter

The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.