TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Short term concerns overshadowed long term optimism to push large cap indices down after two weeks of gains. However small cap names became targets for moving money giving the S-fund more than 3% in gains. Large caps started the week with gains after another successful vaccine trial gave investors a light at the end of the tunnel. But it was the continuing record high new infections, landmark death counts, logistic concerns to how a vaccine would get transported that led large cap investors to take profits. Of course those all surround a concern for an economy that is recovering from the first lockdowns that took its toll on in person businesses. Investors are also getting tired of the carrot tied to a string; the carrot being a stimulus package out of Washington.

On the upside the pull back in large caps this week comes just off record highs and open up trading opportunities and price action to establish strong base moving forward. The chance of what we saw last February in the first half of March isn't off the table with the indices sitting around their highest expense. But that light at the end of the table may keep money swimming in stocks.

There was an increase in risk off investments this week. Naturally with stocks hitting new highs recently all while the virus is threatens the stability of the economy, money that left large caps made its way into safer bonds. The F-fund gained just under 0.6% for the week pushing it to highest price since September.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 20:




The SPY's (S&P 500 / C-fund) started the week with gains but quickly shifted into a sliding channel. The charts now give us a bull flag but take a look below at the last bull flag back in October. There was no immediate break out and once it did break below it wasn't long before the index was rallying into November. Support below the current price comes from the interception of the 20-day EMA and the trend line of the September and October highs. The C-fund lagged the TSP funds for the week with the only loss as it fell 0.73%.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) did not pull back late in the week like large caps but rather extended its gains and closed near its highs for the week. With Tesla joining the S&P 500 it brought a lot of attention to the smaller upcoming electric car companies that shined this week within the small cap indices. The S-fund led the TSP funds with a 3.47% gain.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) produced new highs again this week. The action was steady and in a relative flat trading channel but still a step higher. Right between the losses of large caps and the over performance of small caps sat the I-fund with a respectable 1.3% gain for the week.




The BND (Bonds / F-fund) extended higher following the action of the previous week. Economic shutdowns and the potential of more have been a driving force sending investors to safer investments. The bond market was pushed to prices not seen in more than two months. A similar build up was seen in late August into late September but the result was a stagnant pull back and slow slide. The F-fund was up 0.59% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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