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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks manage to close at record highs after a turbulent week. The week started with a gap up to new highs after Pfizer reported a Covid-19 vaccine trials that were 90% effective. The euphoria did not last the whole trading day and the market gave back a good chunk of the gains back out of record high territory. The action that followed over the next few days came from a rotation out of the big tech stay at home names and into more economy sensitive sectors that have lagged since March. This week's action demonstrates the market's attempt to make sense of the coming months. Each day we see record highs of new covid cases all while the possibility of a saving vaccine is ever closer. The end was the S&P 500's first record close since September.

Just two weeks into November and stock indices are up around 10% or more for the month. The elections were thought to bring some clarity moving forward but there is still concerns of more lockdowns across the country and speculation into how much longer the economy and endure the weight of the virus. The step towards a vaccine has given investors hope that the end is sooner than later. The issue is stock prices have only uncharted territory for prices for growth with a large range to reasonably pull back. Fear of missing out could be a driver moving forward with a rising speculation of the end of the pandemic but such momentum can leave markets vulnerable.

Bond markets also had mixed action for the week but the F-fund took a net loss of 0.14% to end the week. U.S. stock indices were up more than 2% while the I-fund led the TSP funds with a 4.48% gain.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 13:




The SPY's (S&P 500 / C-fund) opened at record levels for the week but those early gave were given back once the initial euphoria settled. The gap opened was closed by Tuesday. The highs of September held as support Wednesday and the following day the broad market fell back to support. The index rallied Friday to move past the September high and record a new closing high. The C-fund was up 2.22% for the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) also produced a new closing high on Friday. The index remained within a trading channel of the last few months so it faces the top resistance moving forward. The S-fund was up 2.26% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) gapped up above resistance and never entered the open gap left behind for the rest of the week. The index chopped around for the week but closed at about its weekly highs. The result was the I-fund outperforming the TSP funds with a 4.48% gain.




The BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped down while stocks gapped up Monday putting the index back below its 20 and 50-day EMAs. However the index recovered most of the losses by the end of the week and settled for a 0.14% and about even with its 50-day EMA. An open gap from this week's action was left behind.



Taking a step back with this index we see the downtrend that has been in effect since August and the approaching 200-day EMA. The downtrend is minimal leaving the bond market to still be a safe place against volatile stocks until the index has a change in character.



Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another a target="_blank" href="http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tommyiv/tsp-talk-weekly-wrap-ups/">TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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