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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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This week was another learning experience about following the obvious. The obvious was that this election was going to be a bumpy ride without a clear winner for president which would weigh down on stock prices. Stocks prices did not react in this obvious manner, in fact stocks had their best week since the comeback rally in April. Impressively the S&P 500 was up more than 1% for four straight days (M-Th). All this with the fate of our government in the air.

Many shaped the market's positive character to likelihood of a split congress; although that did not have much certainty either as the Senate elections are still close for the last seats to decide the majority. The record breaking new cases of corona virus couldn't have been attractive to buyers either. A plus for the economy came from Friday's job report that had promising numbers like the drop in unemployment but that came out on Friday where stocks did not soar.

Something between the lines that isn't too clear may have had stocks on the rise; but the answer may not be found in the news but the technical set up and reaction of non-emotional computer trader programs. When pattern become noticeable in markets that is usually the end of that pattern. This week's action may hold a similar truth as the week had high expectation for volatile swings and running investors. With the majority anticipating a bear move this week, those trades were taken advantage of and unwound by high frequency traders and the computer programs. The result was a stepping stone of gains. Those caught off guard were quick to jump back in the market and continue to drive prices higher. Will this continue? I hope not as we are approaching new highs with a lot of head winds, we don't want a second March.

Its been reported that Biden has been elected but that is being disputed by President Trump as expected so that could have an effect next week depending if and how far Trump can push for legal action.

Bond prices jumped early in the week in reaction to poor economic data that had some running to safety. This gave all the TSP funds gains for the week with the S-fund leading with a 8.21% gain.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 6:




The SPY's (S&P 500 / C-fund) rallied for the first four days of the trading week and had opened and closed above its 20 and 50-day EMAs by Wednesday. Resistance was met Thursday and marked the gains for the week. Friday the index was just about even for the day but did fill an open gap intraday. One gap was left open for the week. The C-fund was up 7.36% for the week.



This is a weekly chart of SPY going back before the Covid sell-off. I just want to point out that we have been teetering above and below the highs before the sell of in February in the last few months and we are currently back above.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) produced new highs this week as well as led the TSP funds in gains for the week. The S-fund was up 8.21% for the week. There are three open gaps on the chart but that could not stop the index from moving past resistance for the week. The S-fund was down Friday to settle about even with the highs of October.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) rose with U.S. stock indices with the election despite more fears of economic shut downs in foreign markets. The index gapped up three times this week to eventually end with a gain of 8.10% for the week.




The BND (Bonds / F-fund) gapped up Wednesday and continued higher into Thursday. The gains were cut by a drop in the dollar but the index still has support from a previous resistance trend line. The BND is back above its 20 and 50-day EMAs. The F-fund lagged compared to the TSP stock funds but did add 0.49% for the week.



Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
BND (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)

Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes