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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Easy gains are gone. Its a swing traders market where the market's tone changes day to day and those who play hope to land on the right side of the rallies and corrections. As a whole the market is on a down trend. If you are a buy and holder, paying attention to this market is a sure way to add stress to your life. The stock indices ended the week with a rally but also a fourth consecutive week of losses. A buy and holder should make one of three decisions: step aside and wait for the markets to find their footing, stay invested but don't pay attention to day to day action, or take your shot at market timing and to turn these weekly losses to profits. Not an easy game but there is potential to thrive in this environment.

As elections approach investors become more and more uneasy. Its hard to bet on the future with so much uncertainty. So the markets are falling but the liquidity put into markets by the Fed help to feed those still confident who, along with and computer programs, take over the buying. At the end of the equation is volatile swings. From late March through August confidence that the Fed and fiscal stimulus from our government will be the safety net kept buyers buying and sellers wrong. Well with that fiscal stimulus getting kicked down the road and still no real control of the virus, sellers have ammunition.

With a fourth week in a row of losses, the claim that this is a 'healthy pull back' is losing its validity. But buyers are not out of this, the S&P 500 ended the week well off its lows. The concern going forward is the lack of technical support the indices have going into next week.

All stock TSP funds were down for the week. The I-fund took the greatest loss falling 4.22% for the week while the C-fund was down 0.62% thanks to a rally Friday. Bonds have not been the place to find gains but they are holding in place. The F-fund lost 0.1% for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 25th:




The SPY's (S&P 500 / C-fund) had closed below its 50-day EMA at the end of the previous week. This week the index remained below its 50-day. Currently we see a falling trading channel the but the 200-day EMA, now at 310, would be a possible place to find stable footing. Although that would be a decent fall from the current prices to test. The C-fund fell 0.62% this week after taking back a majority of the losses produces earlier in the week.




The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) was thought to be the safe haven from the correcting big corporations. Well this week the index took its own stride of correction extended the trouble across the broader market. The index also has produced a falling trading channel which if it holds will force a test of the 200-day EMA. The S-fund was down 1.84% for the week.




Support from the 20-day did not hold this week for EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund). In fact the index opened for the week below its 50-day EMA. A troubling move for an index that had held up against the U.S. corporations indices. The index continued its decline intraweek and found its lows at its 200-day EMA before reversing for the day Friday. The I-fund lagged the TSP funds with a loss of 4.22%




The BND (Bonds / F-fund) has not shared the volatility of stocks but money has not been seeking bonds for safety either. The index was mellow for the week finding its lows early but did end the week below its 50-day EMA again. The F-fund fell 0.1% for the week.



Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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