TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

The bears resurfaced this week after resistance, jobs report, and the oil war put a cap on the bull's recovery attempt. Investors had jumped back into stocks the previous week after stimulus was passed by the lawmakers, but that excitement faded as job numbers were being realized and unemployment and jobless numbers were greater than expected. The 701,000 jobs lost in the March jobs report was the first net job loss since 2010 and unemployment jumped to 4.4%. But the staggering realization was that these numbers reflected the jobs market up to March 12th before a near nation wide shutdown were implemented by governments. Around 10 million Americans applied for unemployment in the last two weeks. Next month's numbers in the April report will no doubt have astonishing numbers.

The question on everyone's mind is: how long will this last? The uncertainty of the nature of the virus makes the risk assessment impossible. The severity of the pandemic, the time social distancing will be endured, and the economic impact of those are all unanswerable questions. Some think the worst has yet to come and the estimated jobless numbers don't represent the real magnitude. The decrease in volatility in the last couple weeks in stock markets suggest investors are approaching clarity of the situation; but of course markets are moving off of speculation. Earnings in a couple of weeks will be a very interesting test of investors speculations.

Bond market got quiet this week and faded slightly. However a dividend payment gave the F-fund an extra boost gaining 0.75% for the week. All the TSP stock funds were down with the 7.02% loss in the S-fund lagging the funds.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending April 3rd:




Here are the TSP fund monthly returns for March:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) found resistance at the 20-day EMA to end the stimulus recovery rally from the previous week. The index gapped down Wednesday and it was consensus among most that the index was on its way to test the March 23 lows. Although that's still in the cards, the index traded sideways in a tighter range than we've been use to during the pandemic crash. Volatility in stocks has faded for now and the expectations of a quick test of the lows are less obvious than initially expected. Once patterns are noticed by the masses is usually when they end. But like I said above, the uncertainty of what's to come is not on the bulls side. The bears still have the advantage. The C-fund was down 2.02% for the week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) descended rather in the last few days rather than remain sideways. The open gaps are on surround the index but it seems to be melting to the lower of the two. Although we usually see gaps filled, sometimes tops or bottoms of gaps can be significant support or resistance themselves. The S-fund lagged the TSP funds with a loss of 7.02% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) moved in much of the same as the funds above. The index faded like the S-fund but at a lower magnitude. The result was a 3.69% loss this week.




AGG's (Bonds / F-fund) high came at the beginning of the week and actually coincided with the bottom of the trading channel of the months leading to March. The index faded from there and seemed to have been establishing resistances from the peak of march down to the Monday's high. The index lost a slight amount this week but a dividend payout kept the F-fund in positive territory with a gain of 0.75%.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
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