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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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The bears remain in hibernation for the winter allowing stocks to continue this relentless climb. Investors' fears of the Iran situation went quiet real quick when all was said and done. With that aside the signing of the phase one trade deal was in sight coming into this last week. Many anticipated a "sell the news" reaction but conversely it turned out the deal was not already priced in. A few changes kept investors on their toes but for the most part it was a relief for the market to get something solidified between the two nations.

With momentum high it seems nobody is willing to sell. Hard to blame them when we're entering earnings season while economic data and the few bank earnings that have come in suggest the consumer is still fierce. The Fed is talked about less but they are very much a contributing factor to this market. Keeping rates low while adding liquidity to the markets is them keeping their foot pressed on the throttle and will do so until they feel the economy has enough velocity to coast on its own for a while. I'm not a trained economist but I 'm curious to what are the possible implications of this. And why just a little over a year ago were they far more hawkish? The uncertainty and possible economic weight of the trade war had something to do with it; so with trade progress now among us should we be waving goodbye to the dovish Fed?

For the next few weeks that will not be a concern. The spotlight is earnings and how investors, those fully and those under-invested, will respond to earning with stock prices already at record high prices and on a 3+ month rally.

TSP stock funds showed a mix of gains with the S-fund leading with a 2.34% gain for the week while the I-fund was up 0.85%.

Bonds were up mid-week pulled back following the phase one trade deal signing and more strong economic data. The F-fund kept some of the early gains up 0.05% for the week.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending January 17th:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) continues to make record highs and that includes Friday's action. That was more impressive because the index broke rising resistance in the process. This was from help from the bullish drive of an options Friday. Trading ranges remain relatively tight but the momentum remains up. The C-fund was up 1.98% for the week.|

The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) outperformed the TSP funds this week and even came off its highs Friday. The index seemed to be losing steam the previous week and had flattened out a bit. Well that was not the case this week as the index drove above the highs of December and broke rising resistance Thursday. The S-fund gained 2.34% for the week.

EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) broke out of some stagnation and eventually traded to new highs on Friday. Open gaps remain below the current price but it hasn't been a driver for this index for a month. Now a test of rising resistance will be the next obstacle for EFA. The I-fund lagged the TSP stock funds with a gain of 0.85%.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) gapped up Wednesday to its previous highs and traded around there for two days created new intraday highs. The index pulled back Friday to fill the open gap formed earlier in the week and gave back some of the gains. The F-fund was up 0.05% for the week to beat the G-fund by 0.01%.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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