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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stocks continued their December climb as they approach the highly regarded positive seasonal bias surrounding Christmas. Stocks were up 4 of the 5 trading days this week, all four were record closes for the S&P 500 which has produced 6 record closes in the last 7 trading days. The highlighted news this week was the House of Representatives impeaching Trump but that did not have an effect on stock prices. Investors don't seem to care about how that may effect further trade decisions or budget agreements. It seems rather investors were still willing to buy now that trade and recession concerns have been put on the back burner and the Santa Claus rally is expected next week.

Bond prices slid this week while stocks are currently the hot ticket. Uncertainty around the global economy and trade has lessened the last couple weeks and that encouraged investors to move out of safer investments and join in on the expected gains. The counter bearish outlook is pull backs and recessions come when concern has left the average trader. The feedback loop should keep some hesitant so when the bears have finally given up their argument then its time to retreat.

Next week Christmas sits right in the middle of the trading week. The action will be interesting with seasonal bias along with low volume. Last year this was the beginning of the comeback rally that gave 2019 its early gains. The situations is very different this year.

All the TSP stock funds were up with the S-fund leading with a 2.16% gain for the week. The F-fund was the only loss for the TSP funds and came down 0.3% for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 20th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) larges gains came at the beginnings and end of the week. The mid-week days were relatively flat. The index opened higher Friday and left an open gap. The index concluded its string of record highs Friday but they were marked buy rising resistance. The index is in the middle of being wedged right now but has seasonality on its side to help support and weaken resistance next week. The C-fund was up 1.68% for the week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) rode the previous rising support as resistance for most of this week. Finally Friday the index gapped up and reentered the trading channel. This came with all time record highs for the index. The S-fund led the TSP fund with a gain of 2.16%.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) gapped up early in the week but pulled back for the rest of the week filling the open gap produced. Resistance held early in the week after an impressive climb since the U.K. elections. The I-fund lagged the TSP stock funds with a gain of 0.63% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) fluctuated yet fell this week. The 50-day along with rising trend line held as support late in the week. The index is in a wedge formation with intraday prices falling below the bottom of the wedge but climbing back. The F-fund was down 0.3% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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