TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks pulled back Monday to start off an important week for markets. The uncertainty surrounding trade and upcoming scheduled tariffs had some investors swallowing gains and moving to the sidelines. Last week's jobs report gave investors the confirmation bias they needed to have faith in the future of the economy. However it would be an uninformed gamble to buy further into stocks ahead of an FOMC meeting that won't include a rate cut as well as a tariff deadline coming Sunday with no certainty of being kicked further down the road.

Daily TSP Funds Return More returns

U.S. stock indices were all down less than a half percent Monday. NASDAQ took the greater loss of the major indices with Apple pulling back as its a greater risk if tariff do take effect. Economic data is already showing a sharp decline in exports from China to the U.S. Without a serious trade headline to catalyze a real reaction,its likely today's trading will have similar action. Market players are now either protecting their portfolios from the worst or making short term moves.

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The SPY (C-fund) fell back below what was the rising support since mid-October losing 0.31% on the day. It did not pull-back enough to fill much of the gap formed at Friday's open. It would have been unrealistic, although not impossible, for the index to trade above the highs yesterday without at least a rumor of a trade deal. Logic and technical conditions point to the index fluctuating the next couple days until the Fed makes sense of economy or short-term trade outcome becomes more certain.




The DWCPF (S-fund) was down 0.34% and didn't fill its open gap either. The discrepancy in two charts was that the long term trend line held as support in DWCPF. The index now is trading in the middle of the trading channel of most of November.




The Dow Transportation Index also fell around 0.3% on the day but remained between the 20 and 50-day EMA.




The EFA / (I-fund) again was held by the resistance of November highs but the I-fund was given a gain of 0.11%. The gap from Friday was just about filled by the close. There is another open gap in reach but the 20-day EMA will have to be passed to get there; not out of the ordinary, the index broke below and above it in the last week.




The dollar was down slightly to fill part of the open gap from Friday's open. The 50-day EMA has now held as support for two days.




The AGG (F-fund / bonds) was up for the day but faded from open to close to give the F-fund a slight gain of 0.09%. The win was a hold of the 20-day EMA and rising support from November lows. There are still tow open gaps below the 20 and 50-day EMA.




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Thanks for reading.

This has been TommIV filling in for Tom Crowley. Tom will be back to his regular schedule Wednesday.

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