TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Money circulated markets this week turning big moves into modest weekly net returns. Stock TSP funds were mixed this week ranging from a slight loss in the S-fund to less than a half percent gain in the C and I-funds. At a glance these returns seem a bit dull but are actually a significant win for the bulls considering the C-fund was down1.51% after Tuesday's trading. Volatility spiked this week as investors were more easily manipulated by headlines since seen in early October trading.

The early sell-off was ignited Monday by disappointing manufacturing data coupled with Trump threatening more tariffs on Brazil and Argentina through twitter. Prices dropped further Tuesday after Trump claimed there was no deadline on the China trade deal. All this had investors back to worrying about the effect of tariffs and trade disputes on the global slowdown. But the very next day reports came of U.S. negotiators aiming to complete phase one before the scheduled December 15th tariffs. Losses were began to be erased and the job was done Friday after the release of the November Jobs report numbers greatly outperformed expectations. This pushed large caps into positive territory for the week and erased most of the early losses in small caps.

Bonds action this week was mostly inverse to stocks. The F-fund was up 0.37% for the week after Tuesday but eventually ended the week with a 0.21% loss.

The strong jobs report gave investors more confidence in the state of the U.S. economy but it also solidified the Federal Reserves borrowing rates are going to stay put for some time.

Trade headlines will continue to be a big catalyst next week as we approach to conclusion of the December 15th tariff deadline.




The VIX Volatility Index saw some spark this week after being relatively stagnant for the last month and a half.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending December 6th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) fell early this week eventually gapping down below its 20-day EMA. That lasted a day before the index began to rebound and hit its highs just below the record price produced last week. The net was two new open gaps below the current price, a rising trend line broken, and a gain of 0.21%.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) had nearly the same result as SPY but failed to regain all the early losses of the week. The S-fund ended the week with a slight loss of 0.06%. There was also an open gap from last month that was filled.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) traded to lower prices not traded since October to fill the open gap left from the month and successfully test its 50-day EMA. The follow up was two gap ups to hit its highs that have been persistent since early November. The I-fund outperformed the TSP funds with a gain of 0.37% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) gapped up early with the manufacturing report and trade drama to open a new gap. The rest of the week the index moved to fill that gap and give up the early gains. The index sits between its 20 and 50-day EMA. Two open gaps sit below to be filled but the real determining factor for bonds next move is how trade negotiations are perceived by the media next week. The F-fund fell 0.21% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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