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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Seasonality further propelled stocks to higher highs this week but offbeat action on the short Friday strengthened the bear argument of coming weakness. Both the bulls and the bears may be hoping for some pull-back next week. Stocks are becoming overbought so a pull-back would set up entry points for optimistic bulls while confirming the bear's inclination that markets have reached their peaks. But markets can be unreasonable and chaotic. Those you have held stocks this year or even just the last couple of months have been rewarded and are feeling smart, but thoughts have to be moving to how to lock in at least some of those gains while remaining somewhat exposed to not miss out on potential further gains. Despite the fundamentals warnings the bears convey, it is still possible for this market run to turn into the volatile and relentless climb of 2017.

Trade negotiations will still be in the spotlight in December. There was concern from China about the U.S. support of democratic protests in Hong Kong. However it seems that didn't derail China's pursuit to work on a deal between the two countries.

All the TSP funds were in positive territory for the week with the S-fund leading with a 1.77% gain. Bonds inched up this week although have slowed the rate of gains sparked earlier in November.





Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 29th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) produced new highs the day before Thanksgiving but felt resistance from the rising trend. The index pulled back Friday but nothing significant and potentially a healthy move for further upside. The C-fund produced 1.04% in gains for the week to finish November with a 3.63% gain.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) outshined large caps with a big day Monday. The index gapped up Monday and traded above the highs of late July.



The index traded above a rising trend line of 2019 for a day before pulling back on Friday. New highs were produced for the year but the all time highs produced in August of 2018 are still waiting to be tested. The S-fund rose 1.77% for the week to outperform but also outperformed the TSP funds for the month of November by rising 4.54%.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) remained in the flat trading channel that held through November. The highs were tested but held again this week while the open gap from the beginning of November remains open. The I-fund was up 0.51% for the week to land it at a 1.15% return for November.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) added to its gains early in the week but eventually found resistance in highs of the first trading day of November. The index pulled back the last couple days of the week to give back early but still ended with a slight gain of 0.16% for the week. Open gaps still linger below the 20 and 50-day EMAs. The F-fund produced the only loss for November but was just down 0.05% for the month.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)