TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Signs of trouble in trade negotiations put an end to stock's weekly streak of gains. Reports that China was not as willing as initially thought to proceed with the terms of the phase one deal sent fear throughout investors that trade progress was about to be derailed again. What was suppose to be a deal that would be complete within two months of its inception, 'phase one' is now potentially forecasted to be completed next year. You can clearly see in the weekly chart below when that made the news. However credit has to be given to the bulls from keeping losses at bay. The overbought conditions have the potential to spark a major sell-off in the face of such news while traders flock to lock in recent gains. That did not happen. The selling was not impressive but the dip buyers resilience was.

Stocks were down this week but the rising trend is still strong. I don't have the means to dig under the surface and tell you whether the buyers are primarily humans or algorithms. To me human emotions would have sent stock prices into corrective mode this week when trade news came out. But I could be wrong and the average investors could have complete faith that trade will work out and their assets are set to gain value.

Bonds moved counter to stocks this week so there is signs that investors are seeking safety in light of potential trouble. The F-fund gained 0.29% for the week.

Next week surrounds Thanksgiving which traditionally has positive bias on markets and lite volume will make markets easier to move.

All the TSP stock funds fell for the week, yet the S-fund was just short of ending flat and was down 0.02%




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 22nd:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) moved below rising support of November but was met with more rising support before testing the 20-day EMA. An open gap produced last week was filled this week.




Rising resistance of 2019's action held this week. The aggressive rising action looks similar to what we say back in July. A slight pull back bounced off the 20-day EMA before moving back to highs which in that case ended with the sell-off of early August. The C-fund was down 0.29% for the week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) poked its head above the most recent highs of late July. The drag on the market brought on by trade woes put an end to that and the index gave up its gains for the week eventually testing rising support which held. The S-fund was down 0.02% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) fell mid-week and seemed to moving to its second attempt to fill the open gap of late October but rather danced around its 20-day EMA. The gap was left open and the index ended in negative territory for the week. The I-fund was down 0.58% for the week to lag the TSP funds.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) moved higher and above falling resistance this week which had a bit to do with some investors moving cash in to safer havens while trade negotiations are reworked. An open gap was left open produced the previous week which will soon be under both the 20-day and 50-day EMAs. However those have not been much trouble to move between for the index in the last month. The F-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 0.29%.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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