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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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A mostly lackluster week ends with a rally on the final trading day to push the three major large cap indices into record highs. Earnings were winding down this week and a shortage of market driving news kept the action this week in a flat tight range jumping between gains and losses. It seemed the quiet action was a sign buyers were running out of gas (cash worth putting to work), but President Trump's economic advisor Lawrence Kudlow commented on progress toward a trade deal and the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about recent strength in the economy. Those remarks on top of decent earnings and a rebound in retail sales data drove stocks to new highs and buying accelerated into the close.

This week was the S&P 500's sixth consecutive week of gains which is its longest streak of weekly gains in two years. The recession fears of the summer have seemed to dissolve in recent weeks. Bad news is shrugged off and good news, especially on trade, is highly celebrated. The action this last month resembles the euphoric action in January 2018 which ended in the VIX unwinding which dragged stocks down into a major sell off. The market's late deterioration last year has to be on the mind of traders too. But logic may not be the right way to navigate the market. Its usual for bull runs to become unreasonable but the outcomes can detrimental. That's a thin rope to walk especially when you need to plan your escape a day in advance through the TSP.

Bonds (F-fund) were also up along with stocks. The logic there too is little hard to follow. Investors are simultaneously buying safer assets like bonds and gold while riskier assets are also being bought. Bonds aren't rallying, rather in a recovery state, but its still interesting to see where cash is moving despite a level of uncertainty still hangs over the rest of the year.

All TSP funds were up for the week. TSP stocks funds varied with the C-fund leading with a 0.94% gain for the week. The F-fund was up 0.54% for the week but still sits under where its started in November.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 15th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was riding a tight range this week going nine consecutive days not moving higher or lower than 0.5% in a single day before Friday's rally. That was the longest such streak since October of 2018. The index eventually gapped up Friday and moved to new highs and surpassed rising resistance. A few open gaps linger below with the largest and furthest being below its 20 and 50-day EMAs. The C-fund was up 0.94% for the week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) edged higher this week but failed to break above rising resistance like large caps. The index was up 0.68% for the week after bouncing in a trading channel. There is a good amount of support under the current price as it slowly grinds higher to test the highs of late July.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) lagged the TSP stock funds this week adding just 0.1%. It seemed as though an open gap was going to be filled this week but the index reversed momentum and losses Friday. The current price is below what was rising support for the second half of October.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) reclaimed some losses this week and filled an open gap along the way. The index gapped up Thursday putting it back above its 20 and 50-day EMAs. It partially filled that open gap when it slightly pulled back while stocks rallied on Friday. The F-fund was up 0.54% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed)

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DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

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EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

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BND (F Fund) (delayed)

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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes