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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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A blanket of optimisms about trade progress drove money out the safer havens like bonds and into stocks this week. Remarks of progress from the U.S. Commerce Secretary over the weekend pushed stock prices to new highs to start the week. China's Commerce Ministry's spokesmen sent large caps to higher highs Thursday by saying the phase one trade deal included both U.S. and China canceling an equal amount of tariffs. Prices faded when the Trump Administration did not confirm these claims although damage was kept to a minimum with more earnings coming in and the overall sense that trade negotiations were moving forward and lessening fears of a coming recession.

Confidence in future economic outlook is rising with the weight of the trade war being lifted and the strength of the consumer and jobs market. Despite stocks trading at higher prices than ever, investors are leaving bonds and other safe havens and putting their money into riskier assets. But its hard to say at this point if investors are joining the wall of worry or the bullish economic outlook is justified. Even if reasons to buy are justified, it can't be denied that stocks are overbought and a healthy move would be a consolidation where new investors could find reasonable entry points. That's not to say that is what will happen but what would be a healthy technical move for the currently overbought indices.

The C-fund led the TSP funds with a 0.93% gain. The S and I-fund were both up more than 0.5%. The F-fund had its worst week suffered a loss this week of 0.88%.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending November 8th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) gapped up early in the week but faded the next couple day to fill the open gap. The top of the open gap would later be the low of Friday's action before some of Thursday's gains were reclaimed. The index has continued to embark on new price territory over the last couple weeks. Open gaps do linger below but investors are taking advantage of the euphoria around stocks while trade negotiations seem to be coming along. The C-fund was up 0.93%.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) has also continued to trade above the highs of September but is far off all time highs. The next feat would be the highs of late July. The index did reenter a rising trading channel late into he week and also has an open gap below to be filled. The S-fund was up 0.59% for the week.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) remained in its trading channel that started mid-October. The recent open gap was moved towards but lows of the week were kept within the trading channel. The result was a gain of
0.55% for the week.




The trade optimism sent AGG (Bonds / F-fund) down early this week but President Trump's criticism of the China tariff claims did not revamp bond buying. Prices for the index ended at the falling support of late October action. An open gap sits above but further upside would have the 20 and 50-day EMAs to surpass. Investors would likely need to be spooked by economic numbers or signs of deterioration in the phase one trade deal. The F-fund fell 0.88% for the week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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