TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

Stocks tacked on a third week of gains fueled by earnings and optimism about progress in the trade negotiations. All the TSP stock funds were up more than 1% for the week and the S&P 500 traded around record highs. The question is whether investors are finally getting over economic worries or has money been moving into a wall of worry. More earnings will be coming in next week and the FOMC meeting is in the middle of the week.

So far good earnings have been celebrated and poor earnings, such as Amazon's, have been mostly forgiven. Sideline money has been waiting for earnings and it is being put to work. But how will markets react to rate decision from the Fed? The decision has the tendency to provoke volatility and if you are bullish on the Fed's move then you are hopeful investors will buy large cap stocks at higher prices than ever.

The F-fund fell 0.15% as bond prices have been bouncing between moving averages and ended the week at support when news of phase one trade negotiations were proceeding well. The S-fund led the TSP stocks with a gain of 1.62% for the week.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 25th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has continued to trade in a rising trading channel since leaving behind an open gap earlier in the month. The index flirted with record levels but did not close at a new high. Earnings have propelled steady trading and trade progress pushed prices higher Friday. The C-fund was up 1.23% for the week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) was not reaching new highs but rather was hitting its highs around the a falling resistant trend line. The index also has an open gap to fill but it sits below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs. You'd have to expect trading trends to accelerate if the index were to break above resistance next week. Its hard to imagine that could happen in the early half of the week ahead of the Fed's rate decision. The S-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 1.62%.




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) made new 2019 highs this week despite the open gap below. These are not record highs so its hard to equate the action we see in the S&P 500 index. We are use to open gaps in this index yet it doesn't seem like a 'healthy' move for the index to leave that gap behind while buying continues. Could set up a quick sell-off leaving those exposed to pay the price. The I-fund was up 1.26% for the week.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) continues to trade between its 20 and 50-day EMAs for the second week. The index moved to prices near the lower 50-day EMA after stocks jumped on optimistic news on trade negotiations. The F-fund fell 0.15% this week.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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