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TommyIV's TSP Talk Blog

TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Stock indices got an early boost thanks to solid earnings reports from a few banks Tuesday. Prices oscillated following the Tuesday boost even with the majority of the earnings released beating expectations. Reports of retail sales slightly slipping in September may have countered the optimism brought by earnings; yet the report could not wipe out the week's gains given the positive earnings from banks laid a foundation for investors that the consumer is still strong. Data suggests consumer strength and the employment market are the major two pillars supporting the U.S. economy while global economies weaken.

We also are back to the balance of whether bad economic news is really 'bad' if it means more potential rate cuts from the Fed. Large caps are not far off highs despite the many uncertainties that you'd think would weigh prices down. The real challenge is deciphering what is already priced in and what the 'investor' is really buying: circumstantial short-term moves or long-term growth potential? In my eyes if an investor is bullish long term right now then they must have faith in both trade negotiations and that the Fed will step in to save the economy if pillars fall.

Short-term outlooks may be more promising with the overall positive start to earnings season this week. Investors may now be over expecting earnings numbers but they may also be more willing to put cash to work.

All the TSP funds were up for the week with the I-fund outperforming with a 1.25% gain. The C and S-fund gained under 1% while the F-fund had a slight gain of 0.09%.




Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending October 18th:




The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) momentum has changed direction since the mini-deal last Friday and into the meat of earnings. The highs are not far off current prices yet there was a recent fail to test highs last month. Earnings will need to be consistently strong to push the index to new prices. The C-fund gained 0.55% last week.




The Dow Completion Indices (S-fund) made its way through the collective moving averages that at the moment are nearly tangled. The index did close above all three of the moving averages I watch and has a little bit of growing room before it tests a possible falling resistant trend line. The open gap will linger unfilled for now but we've seen open gaps left behind for longer than expected. The S-fund gained 0.68% to outperform large caps (C-fund).




EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) sustained its early jump in the week as it was dominated by Brexit deal news that is growing closer to a possible deal worked out. The index peaked this week at the top of an open gap left open from early July which is now filled. The I-fund outperformed the TSP funds with a gain of 1.25%.




AGG (Bonds / F-fund) traded tighter than its usual moves the last couple months as nobody will buy above the 20-day EMA nor sell below the 50-day EMA. The index was down early in the week with the early jump in stocks but slowly climbed back to positive territory to close the F-fund with a slight gain of 0.09%.




Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.


Thomas A Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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Updated 10-19-2019 at 08:00 PM by TommyIV

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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Ups

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
EFA (I Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)
AGG (F Fund) (delayed)

(Stockcharts.com Real-time)