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TSP Talk Weekly Wrap Up

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Two intraday sell-offs this week ensured stocks their second consecutive week of losses. Investors were troubled by poor economic data showing a slowdown in consumer spending which has been thought to be the last leg for the growing economy. Political drama did not have a much of an impact but the proceeding to impeach President Trump will linger as more uncertainty for investors. A curveball was thrown in what was thought to be progressing trade talks when a report came out saying the Trump administration was thinking about denying China access to U.S. capital markets. With a number of disappointing headlines and nearly no good news, bears had control of stocks this week. But the losses were not overbearing, large cap indices are not far off the highs and all the TSP stock funds are still in positive territory for September.

The magnitude of losses varied amongst the stock indices; small caps took the greatest loss pushing the S-fund down of 2.20% yet the fund remains up 0.64% for September with one more trading day left.

Stocks may have taken on greater losses than last week but bonds built smaller gains. The rally off the September lows for the bond market was steep last week but leveled off a bit this week. The F-fund gained 0.37% for the week but with a non-repeat of the more aggressive rally the fund remains down 0.59% for September. This will end up being the only monthly loss for the F-fund in 2019.

Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 27th:

The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has established a descending trading channel with this weeks losses. The lows matched the 50-day EMA which kept the index from filling the open gap from earlier in the month. There is one more day of trading before the fourth quarter starts. The index impressively dug out of trouble in August yet disappointed expectations of carrying the gains to new highs. Without news worth celebrating I imagine the index may continue trading sideways or give some more back before attempting the highs again. The C-fund fell 0.98% for the week.

The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) more than double the losses of SPY. The index fell below the descending trading channel/bull flag early in the week and took it greater loss Friday to fill the gap from early September. The index now sits below the 200-day EMA. The S-fund was down. 2.2% for the week.

EFA (EAFE Index /I-fund) remained in its falling trading channel finding support of the lower trend line before it was able to test the 50-day EMA for support. Open gaps lie below but one is below its 200-day EMA. The I-fund fell 0.66% for the week.

AGG (Bonds / F-fund) added on to last weeks losses but its was not enough to erase the early losses of September. The momentum may have slowed but the index is trading back above its 20-day EMA. Trading lower from here will give credence to a falling resistance trend established below. The F-fund led the TSP funds with a gain of 0.37%.

Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.

Thomas A Crowley
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.

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